The Cleveland Guardians roll out right-hander Tanner Bibee for Game 4 of this AL Division Series, while the Detroit Tigers will counter with a bullpen game on Thursday at Comerica Park.
I'll be targeting two player props, plus a moneyline pick, for my Tigers vs Guardians parlay for Game 4.
Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Picks for Game 4 of the ALDS
- Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- Jake Rogers Under 0.5 Hits (-140)
- Guardians ML (-118)
Parlay Odds: +340 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Leg 1
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
It felt as though Bibee was one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball this season. Through 31 starts, the right-hander posted a 12-8 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong as Bibee ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to back Bibee in the prop market as he ranks in the 61st percentile in whiff rate and in the 74th percentile in strikeout rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he's surpassed in nine of his past 10 starts. His most recent outing came in Game 1 of this series, a game in which Bibee racked up six strikeouts and allowed no runs over 4 2/3 innings in Cleveland's 7-0 victory.
Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Leg 2
Jake Rogers Under 0.5 Hits (-140)
Bibee's biggest strength is his ability to notch strikeouts. That is also catcher Jake Rogers' biggest weakness, which is why I want to sell high on the Detroit hitter in Game 4.
Rogers has recorded at least one hit in four of his first five postseason games, but this is a bad matchup for the catcher. He ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates, Bibee's greatest strengths.
Subsequently, Rogers possesses a .174 xBA and a 44.4% strikeout rate through nine career plate appearances against Bibee.
Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Leg 3
Guardians Moneyline (-118)
If we are backing Bibee and simultaneously fading a Tigers hitter, then a correlated outcome would be for Cleveland to win this game. Detroit is going with a bullpen game and I trust Bibee over any of the Tigers' pitchers not named Tarik Skubal (whom Detroit is saving for a potential Game 5).
The hitting edge also goes to the Guardians. This season, they outranked Detroit in BA, OBP, SLG, wOBA and home runs.
Considering these variables, as well as the two entries already in this parlay, Cleveland's moneyline is a good way to bring the odds up to +340 at DraftKings.
