The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers kick off the Divisional Series at 1:10 PM ET on Saturday. Sure, football is on, but baseball is America's pastime for a reason.
It's time to get ready for playoff baseball with a trio of props and predictions for the Tigers vs. Guardians.
Sean Paul's Tigers vs Guardians Player Props
- Steven Kwan o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-115, bet365)
- Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+475, bet365)
- Matt Vierling to Record A Walk (+170, bet365)
Steven Kwan Player Prop
Steven Kwan o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-115)
What if Steven Kwan is just all the way back?
I hope Kwan’s brief stint on the injured list serves as a needed rest to re-energize one of the sport’s premier bat-to-ball hitters for this postseason run. I can't erase Kwan's elite start to the year from my brain.
He was hitting .370 for his first 52 games of the year before falling off in the final couple of months. He didn't just magically forget how to hit, so I hope the magic reappears in the playoffs.
The All-Star outfielder seemed to right the ship in his final seven regular season games, hitting .333 with an OPS over 1.100. He also scored seven runs, which is very important for this prop. I’m riding Kwan o1.5 hits/runs/RBIs at -115.
The good thing about Kwan is he serves as Cleveland’s leadoff hitter, which is ideal for this kind of prop. The ideal path to making this an easy winner is Kwan getting a hit and stealing a base, then Jose Ramirez can finish the job by bringing Kwan in for a run. It sounds easier said than done, but it's the style of baseball Cleveland has played for years.
Jose Ramirez Player Prop
Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+475)
As always, just to add a little extra fun to the prop picks, let’s go with a home run prop.
My favorite home run prop is Ramirez to go to hit a homer at +475. It’s the worst odds of any player in this game and for good reason since Ramirez's 39 homers tops any other hitter in this matchup.
Ramirez is the most underrated superstar player in MLB. He regularly pops 30+ homers each season, can hit lefties & righties and is an elite hitter at home and on the road.
Moreover, Ramirez finished the season scalding hot, hitting .462 with four homers in the last seven regular season games. I'm hoping the elite-hitting Ramirez carries his hot streak into the playoffs and connects on a homer to hit the longshot prop.
The one thing I looked at that nearly pulled me away from this pick is Ramirez's surprising postseason woes. In 124 postseason at-bats, Ramirez posted a woeful .242 batting average with two homers and an OPS of around .650.
That's right — the same Ramirez who cracked 29+ homers in three of the past four years hasn't found his big postseason moment yet. This could be the time for the casual baseball fan to get familiar with Ramirez.
Matt Vierling Player Prop
Matt Vierling to Record A Walk (+170)
I pivoted from what I normally look for in the final prop of this piece by picking Matt Vierling to draw a walk at +170. Dating back to the regular season, Vierling walked in 10 of his past 12 games, with a walk in each wild card game. He's one of the Tigers' more seasoned hitters in a youthful lineup, so him setting the tone by taking pitches is a huge key.
The list of players who posted a higher walk rate than Vierling in September is fairly small, featuring just 11 players that topped his 14.4% BB rate. Some of the names that accompany Vierling in the 14% or better club? Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Matt Olson and Ketel Marte. Not bad company for Vierling, who isn't an All-Star caliber hitter but features an All-Star eye.
Additionally, Guardians starter Tanner Bibee can be a bit erratic at times. That's not foreign territory for pitchers who generate a bunch of strikeouts, like Bibee. Sometimes, walks can be the downside of a high-strikeout pitcher. Bibee posted a 2.28 BB/9 during the regular season. He also walked a hitter in seven of his past eight starts and multiple in four starts in that span.
