AL Central rivals meet for Game 1 of the ALDS, as the red-hot Detroit Tigers try to dispatch the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Saturday, October 5. First pitch for ALDS Game 1 is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS and TruTV. You can find my Tigers vs Guardians prediction and preview ALDS Game 1 below.
The Tigers were the hottest team in baseball over the second half of the season and they stayed hot against the Astros, sweeping them in two games in the Wild Card Series. The reason they've been so good? Their bullpen has drastically improved and they've had a lot of timely hitting. However, the Division Series is a five-game series and Detroit has limited starting pitching, so its bullpen will have to maintain the same level to knock off the Guardians.
The Guardians finished with the second-best record in the American League, which earned them a bye. Cleveland rode an elite bullpen — led by Emmanuel Clase — and defense all the way to winning the AL Central and over 90 games. The Guardians played the Tigers pretty even throughout the regular season, going 7-6 against them, so this should be a very close contested series.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction
- Tigers vs Guardians picks: Under 7 (-102 | Play to -105)
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet for ALDS Game 1 is on Under 7, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 7 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -175 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 7 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +145 |
Tigers vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Tyler Holton (DET; opener) | Stat | RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L | 12-8 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 2.19 / 2.75 | ERA /xERA | 3.47 / 3.80 |
| 3.17 / 3.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.56 / 3.72 |
| 0.78 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 16.9% | K-BB% | 20.1% |
| 47.2% | GB% | 34.6% |
| 82 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 103 | Location+ | 103 |
Brad Cunningham’s Tigers vs Guardians Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Holton Opens Game 1 Pitching Chaos
The Tigers have coined the phase "pitching chaos" during this postseason, which means they are going with bullpen games on days when ace Tarik Skubal isn't pitching.
They're staying true to pitching chaos for Game 1 as Tyler Holton will be serving as the team's opener.
Holton pitched 1 1/3 innings against the Astros in Wild Card Game 2. Notably, he never faced more than 10 batters in a single outing this season, so most of ALDS Game 1 is going to be down to the bullpen.
The Tigers bullpen has been red hot coming into the playoffs, but their metrics since the All-Star break have been pretty average. Over the second half of the season, Detroit has a bullpen xFIP of 4.03 and its Stuff+ rating is 96, which is dead last in baseball.
However, it doesn't really matter because this bullpen has the best command of any left in the playoffs. Since the All-Star break, the Tigers lead MLB with a 7.3% walk rate and also have one of the best Location+ ratings. Cleveland has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, so forcing them to put the ball in play will be a big key for the Tigers.
Timely hitting was the story for Tigers in their series with Astros.
Whenever they got guys into scoring position, they seemed to always come up with big hits. With that being said, their offensive numbers weren't that great overall this season.
They finished with a 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and since the All-Star break, they only had a wOBA of .298, which was 20th in MLB. In fact, against Bibee's four main pitches, they are below the MLB average in terms of xwOBA.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: The Book on Tanner Bibee
Tanner Bibee had a nice season for the Guardians, utilizing his dominant offspeed pitches en route to a 3.47 ERA/3.8 xERA. Like many pitchers, he utilizes his fastball up in the zone plenty (at a 60% rate), but it hasn't been that effective as opposing hitters have a .345 xwOBA against it because it's a below-average pitch (92 Stuff+).
Bibee's trio of offspeed pitches, though, have been amazing. His slider, curveball and changeup each have an xwOBA under .300; they also generate whiff rates over 22%.
While all three pitches have good Stuff+ ratings, it's Bibee's elite command that makes them so effective, and it's also why he finished the season with a 104 Pitching+ rating, which was 15th among qualified starting pitchers.
Tanner Bibee, Nasty 83mph Changeup. 👌
6th K pic.twitter.com/umh6tC24jA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 19, 2024
If the Guardians have a weakness, it's their offense.
Over the second half of the season their bats went quiet, as they were 23rd in MLB with a 93 wRC+ (100 is average). Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manazardo are the only two hitters in their lineup that had a wOBA above .320 after the All-Star break, so no matter what the Tigers decide to do with pitching chaos, they're likely going to continue to get in favorable matchups.
The strength of this Guardians team is without a doubt their bullpen and defense. Since the All-Star break, only Atlanta had a better xFIP and K/BB ratio.
If Cleveland has a lead going into the seventh inning, it's pretty much lights out for their opponents with Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase set up to finish off games. All three of them are top-30 relievers — each had an ERA under two this season.
On top of having the best bullpen left in the playoffs, Cleveland also finished the season second behind only the Blue Jays in defensive runs saved, which gives them a big edge in this series.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
Tanner McGrath wrote a great piece about the Guardians Park Factor this summer. He highlighted the renovations made to the outfield bleachers created more standing room only, which increased the air flow from the outfield. I mention that because the wind is going be blowing in at close to 8 mph during the game on Saturday.
With both of these teams having below-average offenses and not having great matchups against the opposing pitchers, I think this game is going under. Detroit's "pitching chaos" can play matchups all day long with only two of Guardians hitters posing any real threat.
I highly doubt Tanner Bibee is going to see the Tigers' lineup a third time through. His xFIP the first two time through the order is 3.53 this season, but it rises to 4.37 when he sees the order a third time. Once he comes out of the game, he can hand the ball over to one of the best bullpens in baseball with a lights out 7th, 8th and 9th inning combination.
I only have 6.6 runs projected for ALDS Game 1. Even though the total is really low, I think there is some value on Under 7 runs at -102.
Pick: Under 7 (-102 via DraftKings)
Moneyline
I'm not playing a side for ALDS Game 1.
Pick: Pass.
Run Line (Spread)
I do not have play for the Tigers (+1.5; -175) or the Guardians (-1.5; +145)
Pick: Pass.
Over/Under
This total is already low, but I do see some value with only 6.6 runs projected on my end.
Pick: Under 7.
Tigers Betting Trends
- Tigers are 8-2 over their last 10 games (including the regular season)
- Tigers are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games
Guardians Betting Trends
- Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home
Tigers vs Guardians Weather for ALDS Game 1
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