The Detroit Tigers are right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, and each game becomes increasingly crucial down the stretch. The Tigers traveled to Baltimore to kick off a 3-game set on Friday night, but the O's took care of business.
On Saturday afternoon, the Tigers sent Reese Olson to the mound, who was battling injuries for a good chunk of the season. Southpaw Cade Povich'll oppose him. The Orioles struggled recently, but they've stopped the bleeding a bit with back-to-back wins.
Oddsmakers have the total set at 8.5 and the Orioles as slight -125 favorites on the moneyline. I crafted a 3-leg SGP for Saturday afternoon's game, which pays over 7-1 on your original investment. Continue below for my Tigers vs Orioles MLB parlay picks for Saturday, September 21.
John Feltman's Tigers vs Orioles MLB Parlay Picks for Saturday
- Tigers First Five Innings -0.5 (+138)
- First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-104)
- Andy Ibanez to Score a Run (-120)
Parlay Odds: +711 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Tigers First Five Innings -0.5 (+138)
Simply put, the Tigers' offense is nothing special. In 2024, they are batting .231 against southpaws, and their offense has been highly streaky.
However, I have a hunch that Reese Olson will spin a gem on Saturday and give the Tigers a shot at grabbing an early lead. Olson has battled injuries all season, but his pitching metrics are sneaky elite.
Olson ranks above the 70th percentile in the following metrics:
-xERA
-Chase%
-Whiff Rate
-Barrel%
-GB%
Yes, Olson is prone to allowing hard contact, which is not ideal against a loaded Baltimore offense. However, the only hitter who's seen Olson in the past is Eloy Jimenez, who is 1-10 lifetime against him.
There is a lot of unfamiliarity with the O's, so there could be an adjustment period in the early going. I cannot see Olson getting into trouble until the third time through the order, which makes me think that the Tigers should take advantage while he's shoving in the early going.
Also, it is worth noting that O's starter, Cade Povich, does not strike hitters out and is prone to walking a ton and allowing a lot of contact. I do not expect an offensive slugfest, but the Tigers should be able to take advantage of that and grab an early lead.
First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-104)
As I mentioned above, I am fading both offenses in the early portion of the game. The Tigers are batting .231 against southpaws, and I'd argue their best lineup is full of left-handed hitters.
The Tigers are streaky offensively, and we could enter a stretch where they become ice-cold offensively. The matchup against Povich is enticing, which is why I like them in the early portion of the game, but there is no way that I envision them putting up an abundance of runs.
The key to the total staying under early on is Olson's performance. Olson should be able to carve up the O's offense, but I do worry about him as the game progresses.
If he can limit the rigid contact, it should be smooth sailing.
Andy Ibanez to Score a Run (-120)
Just as I spoke about how I like both offenses to struggle, I am taking a shot with Ibanez here. Ibanez is not a particular offensive player, but he's been a staple at the top of the Tigers lineup in the early going.
Ibanez has great speed and relies on making contact. He has a decent matchup against Povich and has been excellent against right-handed hitters.
He's batting .315 with a .379 OBP against righties, so I like his chances to get on base while Povich is in the game. I'd instead take Ibanez to score a run instead of smacking a base hit to reduce the juice.
Ibanez should bat leadoff today, so he'll have his chances to score, as long as he manages to get on base.
