Tigers vs. Rays Odds
| Tigers Odds | +245 |
| Rays Odds | -300 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-114 / -106) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Tigers took Game 1 of this three-game set against the Rays 3-2 Monday night, and will send 24-year old Beau Brieske to the mound looking to extend their season-high win streak to five games.
Brieske has shown some upside of late, but he and the Tigers will still enter this one as a massive underdogs, as Tampa will be sending Shane McClanahan to the mound.
Tampa's ace has looked the part so far in 2022, pitching to a 2.52 ERA in 39 1/3 innings. Will he and the Rays dominate Tuesday?
Tigers Offense Severely Lacking
It's been a rough start to the season for the Tigers, who entered this season with higher expectations than years previous after a spending spree in free agency.
Detroit's new-look lineup has been ineffective so far at the plate, and the Tigers' AL worst 13-23 record has come in large due to an AL-low 103 runs scored.
Detroit has hit to a 28th-worst wRC+ of 83 and a .276 wOBA. It holds the third-worst xSLG. at .393 and an xWOBA of just .312.
The Tigers' awful production doesn't seem due for a turnaround anytime soon, outside of the fact that it's still hard to see some of the bats featured in this lineup being this stagnant for 162 games.
Many sharp baseball minds felt whoever signed Javier Baez was setting themselves up for somewhat of a disaster, and the early stages of his Detroit career have been exactly that. Baez has hit just .210 with a .252 OBP, and has simply been the definition of an easy out this season.
The Tigers will be in a tough-situation to find offensive success Tuesday facing McClanahan, who's stuff has looked on point to start the campaign. McClanahan has most consistently thrown his four-seam fastball and curveball, and hitters have really struggled with each so far this season, as they hold -7.9 pitch value vs the fastball, and -8.5 vs the curveball.
Detroit has hit left-handed pitching more effectively however, as it has hit to a .301 wOBA and 101 wRC+ in 367 PAs.
Brieske has managed sound results in his initial four starts of the season, pitching to an ERA of 3.86, including a quality start last time out vs Oakland.
Brieske does seem a strong regression candidate by almost any standard, including his poor 5.79 xERA. Brieske is in the bottom-fifth of the league in almost all of the standard metrics, and has struck out just 12.5% of batters faced, while walking 11.5%.
Elite Start For Rays' McClanahan
The Rays have looked true to form in 2022, and are off to a strong 21-15 start behind some strong pitching and scrappy production at the plate.
The Rays have hit to a 13th-best 107 wRC+ rating, and a .301 xWOBA this season, and have produced 4.11 runs per game.
The Rays' expected rates suggest some regression is coming to those numbers, but as we know reasonable production typically goes a lot further for this team than it does many others.
That often holds true each time McClanahan takes the mound, and McClanahan has matched his high expectations so far in 2022.
McClanahan has pitched to an elite xERA of just 2.48, and has struck out 29.7% of batters faced with a walk rate of just 7.0%. He has pitched to a spectacular QOPA of 5.02, and each of his four pitch mix features a well above average rating.
Tigers-Rays Pick
There is a massive disparity between these pitchers, and this projects as an easy win for Tampa Bay.
Brieske appears due for regression, and should the Rays hang a big number up off him that will likely mean cruising to a comfortable win with McClanahan on the mound.
Even considering the Tigers' more effective results vs left-handed pitching, I still think we should McClanahan dominate this matchup.
I see a some value on the over 6.5, but my favorite play for this game is backing the Rays to cover the run line at -125, and would play that down to -135.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -125 (Play to -135)
