Tigers vs. Twins Odds
| Tigers Odds | +175 |
| Twins Odds | -189 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-125 / +105) |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
In what may be the weirdest walk-off hit in recent memory, the Minnesota Twins rallied in the ninth to take down the Detroit Tigers in the series opener.
The AL Central foes meet again on Wednesday night with Michael Pineda on the bump for the Tigers. The Twins, winners of five straight, turn to rookie Joe Ryan.
Can Minnesota continue to roll at Target Field, or will the Tigers bounce back from their late-blown lead?
Detroit Offense Continues to Struggle
Pineda gets a revenge game against his former ball club, making his second appearance of the season for the Tigers.
His first start was five innings of shutout ball against the New York Yankees, as he gave up just three hits in the win. It’s hard to take much from his season debut, but despite giving up plenty of hard contact and not generating swings and misses at a high rate, Pineda held the Yankees to just a .246 xBA.
Pineda’s specialty is his control. He rarely ever walks batters and consistently finds himself in the top 5% of pitchers in walk rate from year to year. Last season, he nearly gave up as many home runs (17) as he did walks (22) over 109 1/3 innings.
He did, however, have an xERA of 4.92, nearly a run higher than his actual ERA.
The Tigers' pitching has been its bread and butter in the early going, and Pineda will be relied on to provide consistent innings with both Casey Mize and Matt Manning on the injured list. Detroit ranks inside the top 10 in ERA and xFIP. And that’s all come despite its 24th team ranking in left-on-base percentage.
The offense's inability to convert with runners on has been Detroit’s ultimate downfall in the early part of 2022. It ranks 25th in runs per game despite a .316 on-base percentage (11th).
Javier Baez did miss a couple of weeks with a thumb injury, and his return should provide an immediate boost. He hit a three-run home run in the series opener Tuesday night.
But Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario — who often anchor the top half of the lineup — have been abysmal in the early going. Both players sit below .210 in wOBA and have a wRC+ in the 30s. For reference, 100 is considered an average wRC+ mark.
The Tigers have scored more than four runs just three times all season and once since the second series of the year.
Expect Joe Ryan to Lead Twins
Ryan entered the season with high expectations, and the 25-year-old has exceeded them through his first three starts.
The right-hander has a 1.67 ERA and is fresh off of a six-inning shutout of the Kansas City Royals. He has given up just three runs all season — all via the long ball — but has limited hard contact and generated plenty of swings and misses.
Opponents have a .215 xBA against Ryan.
Ryan’s xFIP is 4.07 and his xERA 3.51, which suggests he’s due for some negative regression. A 1.67 ERA is unsustainable for just about every pitcher in baseball, but I’d expect regression to slowly come rather than from a sudden barrage of runs.
It’s also important to note that the Twins’ bullpen has the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball (4.22). They traded assumed-closer Taylor Rogers before the season started and have yet to find real stability in the backend.
The Twins offense, like Detroit, has been their biggest issue. They sit 22nd in runs per game, strike out the fifth-most of any offense and sit right around the league average in wRC+ (99).
This offense is more talented than Detroit’s, headlined by leadoff man Byron Buxton, who has six home runs and a 258 wRC+ this season. Big free agent signing Carlos Correa has lagged behind (65 wRC+), as has Miguel Sano (24 wRC+), who has done just about nothing for the Twins in 2022.
Tigers-Twins Pick
To me, the lines for this game are about accurate. Twins are heavy favorites because they have the advantage both at the plate and on the mound.
Pineda was solid in his season debut, but he has just one start under his belt and likely won't pitch deep into Wednesday night's game. He also was quite fortunate last season, with his xERA ending nearly a run higher than his actual ERA.
Ryan, meanwhile, has been great since being tabbed as the Opening Day starter, and now he draws a favorable matchup against a slumping Detroit offense.
I personally am not betting this game, but my lean is to the under and Twins in the first half. I think the Twins have the advantage, but I don't trust their bullpen, so the line is too heavy to take straight.
I would look to parlay the Twins F5 ML if you were to have action with another heavy favorite — say, Philadelphia or Chicago.
Lean: Twins F5 ML in a Parlay | Under 7
