Tigers vs. Yankees Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 8 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -114 | 8 -110o / -110u | -255 |
Gerrit Cole (2.95 ERA, 174 IP) will look to secure his 13th win of the seasonand further his case for the AL Cy Young on Tuesday night as the New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers.
Cole faced the Tigers last Wednesday and threw six strong innings of four hit ball, allowing two earned runs.
The Tigers will send Alex Faedo (4.90 ERA, 57 IP) to the mound, who enters the matchup having pitched to a 2.63 ERA since the All-Star break.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers will look to build upon what has been a better run of offensive play Tuesday in a tough matchup versus Cole. They have hit to a wRC+ of 104 over the last 30 days, which has been aided by the sixth-highest BABIP in the league during that span at .317.
Detroit has hit to a fourth worst wRC+ of 85 this season. Javier Baez's wRC+ of 48 against right-handed pitchers has been a large concern, and that mark has come with a 23.6% K-rate. He has hit .213 in 348 ABs versus right-handed pitchers this season.
His xBA versus fastballs of .221 is his lowest mark versus any variety of pitch. His .141 average on pitches 95 MPH or greater is the second lowest mark in the league. He has struggled mightily versus Cole prior to this contest, as he owns a career .150 average coming from 20 AB
s.
New York Yankees
After Cole's strong showing last Wednesday, he is priced as the outright favorite in the AL Cy Young race at -250.
Cole has pitched to a 3.67 xERA and 3.66 xFIP this season. Over the last 250 PAs his xwOBA has improved, and he has allowed a WHIP of just 0.88 in 57 innings since the All-Star break. He still owns elite ratings on three pitches, and a Stuff+ mark of 122 overall.
Cole has allowed an average of .222 to right-handed batters this season, with a slug-rate of .341. Opponents are hitting just .208 versus his fastball this season, which is the second-best mark among qualified pitchers. Since last season, 55% of his Ks have come on 95+ mph fastballs.
The Yankees' bullpen should continue to be a strength down the stretch. Their 3.18 ERA this season is the top mark in the league, and over the last 30 days they own a 3.74 ERA and 4.14 xFIP.
Tigers vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Considering the recent run of form from Faedo and his steady underlying numbers, it is hard to see much value laying it with the Yankees in this matchup when you would need them to win 73% of the time to be profitable.
My favorite play from the contest involves fading the ice-cold Baez at +105 to not record a hit, as Cole's elite fastball slider combo should continue be a nightmare for him.
Baez has struggled mightily across all splits, but his results versus the fastball have actually been most awful this season. Right-handed pitchers have dominated Baez as well, and historically that does include Cole. He's recording a single hit or more just half the time over the last 30 games. That sample obviously includes more desirable matchups than Cole on average, and days where he is more likely to get four at-bats than today.
A number of +105 for anybody to record zero hits is quite a low number relative to other players, but in this matchup I still think there is value to bet Baez to record under 0.5 hits.
Pick: Javier Baez Under 0.5 Hits +105 (bet365)
