The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will hook up at Fenway Park again tonight. Opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The Jays dug themselves a huge hole this season for the playoffs but are playing good ball at the moment with four consecutive victories, while the Red Sox look to rebound after getting swept by the Diamondbacks at home this past weekend.
Let's preview the game and my Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions, featuring my MLB pick on the first five innings spread for Monday.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox pick: Red Sox F5 -0.5 (-102)
My Blue Jays-Red Sox pick is on Boston to cover the first five innings spread, where I see value at a line of -102. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 9 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -178 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-138 | 9 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +146 |
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline: Blue Jays +118 | Red Sox -138
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox total: Over/under 9 runs scored
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox run line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-178) | Red Sox -1.5 (+146)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) | Stat | TBD (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | W-L | N/A |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | N/A |
| 3.79/4.97 | ERA /xERA | N/A |
| 4.97/4.43 | FIP / xFIP | N/A |
| 1.17 | WHIP | N/A |
| 11.9% | K-BB% | N/A |
| 43.0% | GB% | N/A |
| 92 | Stuff+ | N/A |
| 103 | Location+ | N/A |
Kevin Rogers’ Blue Jays vs Red Sox Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Fade Jose Berrios?
The Blue Jays were a playoff team last season but sit at the bottom of the AL East with five weeks remaining in the season. Toronto swept Los Angeles at home this weekend as the Jays are seeking their first five-game winning streak of 2024.
Since August 9, Toronto is 10-6 the last 16 games. However, seven of those victories came against the Angels, who own the second-worst record in the American League. Also, the Jays didn't play one team with a winning record in that stretch, while facing only two squads sitting above .500 since the All-Star break (Yankees and Orioles).
Jose Berrios heads to the mound tonight looking to improve on his subpar road numbers on the season. At home, Berrios owns an 8-2 mark and 2.83 ERA, but his away stats dip to 3-7 along with a 4.91 ERA, which includes five road starts in which he allowed four earned runs or more.
The Toronto right-hander is coming off three consecutive starts in which he tossed seven innings apiece, which includes a solid road outing against the Angels by yielding two hits and one run in a 9-2 rout.
Berrios has not faced the Red Sox this season, as the Jays split his four starts against Boston in 2023. The first two outings were disastrous for Berrios, who gave up nine runs in a pair of losses, both as substantial favorites. Berrios turned things around in the final two starts by allowing three runs in two Toronto wins, as this is the biggest underdog number he'll see against Boston since 2019.
From a first five innings perspective, the Jays are 2-8 in the last 10 road games, which includes four consecutive overs.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Still Alive in AL Playoff Race
The Red Sox are still alive in the AL Wild Card race by entering Monday's action 3.5 games out of the final spot. However, Boston did not help itself this past weekend with three losses to surging Arizona at home, including blowing a 4-0 lead in Sunday's 7-5 defeat.
Boston held its own in a seven-game road trip at Baltimore and Houston by going 4-3 but scored three runs in the first two losses to Arizona before Sunday's meltdown to fall to 2-7 in the past nine games at Fenway.
My Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis: Boston F5 Spread
Toronto is 1-9 in Berrios' last 10 road starts in the first five innings, which is not a good sign heading into tonight. Also, the Jays have struggled in the first five over the last month in series openers with a 4-16-4 mark the last 24 opportunities.
Boston got off to a great start on Sunday before falling apart late, while the Sox are riding a 4-1 record in the last five home series openers in the first five innings.
Pick: Red Sox First Five Innings -0.5 (-102)
Moneyline
Boston has owned Toronto this season with four victories in five tries, although these teams have played only twice at Fenway Park. The teams split those two games in late June, which included Boston erasing a late 6-2 deficit in a 7-6 walk-off victory.
Run Line (Spread)
In Toronto's last six losses, the Jays have dropped three of those by one run each so it's been hit or miss from that perspective. Each of Boston's past five victories are by two runs or more, so backing the Red Sox at -1.5 wouldn't be a bad look even though two of four wins against the Jays came by a run apiece.
Over/Under
The Jays have cashed the Over in five of the last seven games, but Toronto is 5-2 to the Under in its past seven road contests. To complicate things even more, the Over is 4-1 in the five matchups between the Red Sox and Blue Jays this season.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Betting Trends
- 82% of the bets and 65% of the money are on the Red Sox on the moneyline.
- 81% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the over.
- 68% of the bets and 68% of the money are on the Red Sox to cover the run line.
Blue Jays Betting Trends
- Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Blue Jays are 38-26 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 39 of Blue Jays' 67 last games at home
Red Sox Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Red Sox are 36-29 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Red Sox' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Red Sox' 64 last games at home
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Weather
