The Toronto Blue Jays (66-70) saw their previous campaign end at Target Field by dropping a pair of games to the Minnesota Twins (72-61) in the AL Wild Card round of last year's playoffs. The Jays are back at the scene of crime this weekend, and they have played well of late, while the Twins have struggled so far on their current homestand.
The two American League foes begin their three-game series on Friday night at 8:10 p.m. ET, as each team sends out their ace to the mound for the opener today. Let get to my Blue Jays vs Twins prediction for tonight.
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Twins pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+134)
My Blue Jays-Twins pick is Toronto moneyline (+134). The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Twins Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -164 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-158 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +136 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) | Stat | RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | W-L | 12-8 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 4.10/4.75 | ERA /xERA | 4.26/3.52 |
| 3.92/4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 3.74/3.37 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 15.5% | K-BB% | 21.0% |
| 38.1% | GB% | 41.6% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Kevin Rogers' Blue Jays vs Twins Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Too Little, Too Late?
It could be too little, too late for the Jays, who sit 7.5 games behind the Twins for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
Toronto has won 12 of its past 18 games (technically an 11-6 record since one win came in a suspended game from June made up on Monday), capped off by a 2-0 shutout of Boston on Thursday night.
The Jays own a 3-1 record in its last four road series openers as they send out Kevin Gausman to the mound tonight, as Toronto has won seven of his past eight starts.
Gausman silenced the Angels' bats in his last outing by striking out 10 batters in seven innings of work, while giving up two hits and one run in an 8-2 home blowout.
The right-hander has been terrific on the road the last few months with Toronto posting a solid 8-1 mark with the lone loss coming at Seattle in a 2-1 defeat in early July.
Gausman was racked by the Twins at home earlier this season by giving up 10 hits and seven runs in three innings as Toronto fell into a 7-1 hole. However, the Jays rallied back for an incredible 10-8 victory to get Gausman off the hook, but he has allowed 15 earned runs in his past three starts against the Twins since 2023.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Pablo Lopez Heating Up
The Twins sat three games behind the Guardians for the top spot in the AL Central heading into Monday's home series with the Braves.
Cleveland stubbed its toe against Kansas City by losing three of four games, but Minnesota couldn't pick up any ground as the Twins were swept by Atlanta. The Twins allowed 23 runs in the three losses and fell to 1-5 on their current homestand and 2-8 in the last 10 games.
Pablo Lopez is coming on at the right time for the struggling Twins by delivering consecutive scoreless outings against the Rangers and Cardinals. Minnesota threw away a 4-0 lead in an extra-innings loss at Texas, but the Twins cruised past the Cardinals, 6-0 for the only win on this homestand.
The Twins cashed the over in six consecutive starts by Lopez prior to an under against St. Louis, as Minnesota scored at least five runs five times in his past seven trips to the mound.
Lopez's strikeout numbers took a dip in the three starts before facing the Cardinals as the right-hander posted a total of 10 strikeouts against the Rangers, Royals, and Cubs.
The former Marlin rebounded in the strikeout column with nine punchouts against St. Louis, but it marked only the second time in his past six home starts that he eclipsed his prop line in that department.
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction: Bet Toronto on the Moneyline
Minnesota has gone through a horrific homestand so far, capped off by the Atlanta sweep. It would be easy to think the Twins turn it around with Lopez on the mound and how well he has pitched recently. The Jays are actually on an uptick and Gausman's recent road success, along with looking to pitch better the second time around against Minnesota, is worth a strong look.
Moneyline
I understand Gausman has not been great against Minnesota, but this is by far the highest underdog number he has seen when facing the Twins. Minnesota can hit the reset button following the Atlanta sweep, but until the Twins can turn it around, they are not worth backing at this price.
Run Line (Spread)
Each of Minnesota's last three wins have come by two runs or more, while cashing the run-line in 14 of their past 16 victories. Each of Toronto's past four losses were by two or more, so if you like the Twins here, mine as well take them at -1.5.
Over/Under
Four of the last five matchups between these teams have finished under the total, including two of three in Toronto earlier this season. Toronto is currently riding a three-game under streak, while Minnesota has hit the under in four of its past six games.
Blue Jays-Twins Weather Forecast
Blue Jays vs Twins Betting Trends
- 82% of the bets and 88% of the money are on the Twins on the moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the over.
- 79% of the bets and 43% of the money are on the Twins to cover the run line.
Blue Jays Betting Trends
- Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Blue Jays are 41-28 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone Under in 4 of Blue Jays' last 5 games.
Twins Betting Trends
- Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
- Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The totals have gone Over in 2 of Twins' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone Over in 33 of Twins' last 66 home games.
