Tuesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Blue Jays vs. Yankees: New York Will Bounce Back vs. Kikuchi

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

Game 2 between American League East powerhouses is set with the Toronto Blue Jays fresh off a 3-0 win over the New York Yankees.

It was George Springer doing all the damage for Toronto, driving in all three runs during a 3-for-5 night. He nearly outhit the Yankees (four hits) alone in the win.

New York hands the ball to Nestor Cortes looking to put aside their two-game losing streak while Yusei Kikuchi makes his Toronto debut on Tuesday night.

Can the Bronx Bombers offense wake up en route to a bounce back win? Or will Toronto's pitching prove to be too much yet again?

Will We See 'First Half of 2021 Kikuchi' for Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays bolstered their rotation with the offseason signings of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. 

Berrios didn’t make it out of the first inning in his Toronto debut while Gausman threw five innings of three-run ball. Now, the Blue Jays turn to the 30-year-old southpaw in the second game of this AL East bout with the Yankees.

In the 2020 COVID-shortened season, Kikuchi’s advanced metrics showed his potential. Despite a 5.17 ERA, his xERA sat nearly two runs lower (3.33) and held opponents to a .228 xBA, per Baseball Savant. 

Kikuchi rode the positive regression train into the first half of 2021. He was named an All-Star and had a 3.48 ERA over 16 starts, with batters hitting just .205. 

But the second half was a case of Jekyll & Hyde. All success quickly faded and Kikuchi was shelled to the tune of a 5.98 ERA and a .300 batting average. 

His xERA for the season ended at 5.23 and he constantly struggled when it came to limiting hard contact. While lefties struggled to hit Kikuchi, right-handed hitters dominated, slashing .271/.351/.479 last season. 

In three spring training appearances this season, Kikuchi has given up six runs in 8.1 innings, including four home runs. 

The All-Star Kikuchi seems like a distant memory at this point, and advanced metrics seem to expect struggles with his new team. He draws a tough matchup on Tuesday, too, making his Toronto debut against the power-hitting Yankees.

Yankees Should Bounce Back From Shutout

‘Nasty’ Nestor Cortes became a fan-favorite in New York and really took a step forward in his second go around with the Yankees. 

The southpaw made 22 appearances — 14 starts — and finished the 2021 season with a 2.90 ERA and a .215 xBA. Opposing hitters won’t chase and rarely whiff, forcing Cortes to rely on his control and placement of pitches. 

That had been a problem at times in his early years bouncing around the majors. Cortes addressed the problems and his numbers significantly improved across the board. 

His 3.32 xERA and 4.18 xFIP from 2021 does forecast some slight regression for the 27-year-old, but Cortes looks like a totally different pitcher than when he first made his way to the big leagues. 

Cortes isn’t the overpowering type, with his fastball sitting right around 90-91 mph. He relies on the 4-seam fastball to get the job done. It’s his most used and best pitch (43 percent), generating a .190 xBA. 

This is also a Yankees lineup that feasts on left-handed pitching. This is a team that hit .255 against southpaws last season (.230 vs RHP), hitting with more power and a better eye for the ball.

Josh Donaldson's addition should also boost the Yankees offense on Tuesday night, and Anthony Rizzo actually has reverse splits and hits left-handed pitching incredibly well.

All this to say that the Bronx Bombers that scored zero runs in the series opener should be able to find more success on Tuesday night.

Blue Jays-Yankees Pick

This is the perfect spot to back the Yankees, who draw a favorable matchup and have the pitching edge. Kikuchi's second half of 2021 was a disaster, and I don't expect that to turn around anytime soon.

While it's always risky to fade the Blue Jays offense, Cortes is the more well-rounded pitcher and is comfortability pitching at a hitter friendly park like Yankee Stadium (2.53 ERA).

Cortes actually has even splits when it comes to facing hitters from both sides of the plate too, while Kikuchi has shown vulnerability when tasked with right-handed hitting.

The Yankees offense should find success at home against Kikuchi, riding Nasty Nestor's success en route to a bounce back performance. I like both the Yankees on the F5 and full-game moneylines on Tuesday night.

Pick: Yankees ML (to -130)