The New York Yankees (15-10) host the Toronto Blue Jays (12-13) on April 25, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
With a miserable pitching matchup (Jose Berrios vs Carlos Carrasco) on the docket, we'll dive into why the short home favorites look like the clear side in this one with their patience and power.
Find my Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction for Friday below.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Yankees pick: Yankees Moneyline (-136) | Play to -145
My Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet is the Yankees ML (-136). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 9 -115o / -105u | +118 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -115o / -105u | -140 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) | Stat | RHP Carlos Carrasco (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 5.02/4.69 | ERA /xERA | 6.53/5.14 |
| 5.43/4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 5.73/4.66 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.45 |
| 1.85% | K-BB% | 2.14% |
| 44% | GB% | 38.2% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 81 |
| 95 | Location+ | 103 |
Kenny Ducey’s Blue Jays vs Yankees Preview
Blue Jays Betting Preview: Berrios Disappointing
Jose Berrios has unfortunately turned back into Jose Berrios following a couple of encouraging seasons. While trouble bubbled beneath his surface-level ERA in the mid-threes, Berrios at least found a way to find outs on contact and limit walks in the past couple of years, but now things are catching up to him.
Berrios has had a surprisingly difficult time throwing strikes with a 10.7% walk rate through five starts, and it's hard to pin it on just one outlier performance. He's remained steady in his mediocrity with strikeouts, but the walks — in chorus with another dreadful showing in his expected power numbers — have led him to a poor beginning.
The righty owns a .466 xSLG thus far, which would mark the second-worst of his career, though if there's any saving grace here, it's the fact that his xBA is at a manageable .249. The tough news, however, is that it's been largely weighed by an unsustainable 13% pop-up rate.
There's not much to write home about offensively for the Jays, either, who rank 25th in wRC+ over the past two weeks with a low 7.7% walk rate and meek .121 Isolated Power. They've struck out just 18.8% of the time, but have done little on contact.
Yankees Betting Preview: NY Bats Rescuing Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco has been a rather steady back-end presence for the Yankees, going four starts without allowing more than four earned runs. He's remained a stalwart when it comes to throwing strikes and preventing walks, but he's also allowed four home runs now in his past three outings.
The strikeouts remain hard to come by for this contact-oriented veteran, and while his sinker usage has come up, he's pitched to the lowest ground-ball rate of his career thus far at 38.2%. We know the Yankees tend to teach their arms to pitch to fly balls despite their hitter-friendly park, as it's generally a more consistent approach when it comes to getting outs on contact. Still, Carrasco has clearly struggled to adjust, with the number of home runs allowed in the past few outings. On top of that, his .488 xSLG and 13.2% barrel rate would lead you to believe that's far from a fluke.
The good news is that this team continues to hit, even with Cody Bellinger running cold and some bats cooling off after a hot start. The Yankees rank fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a high 11.6% walk rate and .163 ISO which have masked any concerns regarding their 25.4% strikeout rate.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's hard to look past Berrios' issues with free passes, especially heading into this start against one of the most patient teams in baseball. He's also allowed six home runs in five starts, and New York has been equally potent in the power department. While that xBA looks solid, we've covered how it may be deceiving given his unsustainable number of pop-ups, and if you'd like to bet on regression, you'd want to start that now.
On the other end, Carrasco has looked weak, but this Blue Jays offense looks weaker. His ability to get outs on contact is still there; he's just going to struggle against teams that will lift the ball out of the park, and Toronto has been swinging freely and doing very little damage on contact.
This is one of the best numbers you'll be able to find on a straight fade of Berrios, particularly against an offense this menacing. Yes, we're going to have to pray we get a halfway-decent outing from Carrasco, but he's yet to have a nightmare turn in the rotation. He couldn't ask for an easier matchup.
Pick: Yankees ML (-136)
Moneyline
The sharp money is hitting Toronto here despite its five-game losing streak. It's managed to score just three runs in its past three contests.
Run Line (Spread)
The Blue Jays have gone a solid 16-9 to the run line, but are 0-5 in their last five. New York has covered in seven of 11 games as home favorites.
Over/Under
89% of the handle is on the Over here, but the sharp action we've tracked is on the Under. Each team is 3-1 to the Under in its last four.
