The New York Yankees (15-11) host the Toronto Blue Jays (13-13) on Sunday, April 27. First pitch for the first game of the doubleheader from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Yankees-Blue Jays Game 1 features a premier starting pitching matchup between Max Fried and Kevin Gausman. The Yankees are -198 favorites on the moneyline and the Blue Jays are +166 underdogs. The game total is 8.5 (+100o / -122u).
Find my Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction and Game 1 pick below, plus probable starting pitchers, betting trends, viewing information and more.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Yankees pick: Pick: Over 8.5 (play to -130)
My Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet is over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | -198 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | +166 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 4-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.16 / 3.45 | ERA /xERA | 1.42 / 3.55 |
| 3.59 / 3.85 | FIP / xFIP | 2.89 / 3.56 |
| 0.86 | WHIP | 1.01 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 32.1% | GB% | 50% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 109 | Location+ | 101 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Preview & Prediction
Yankees Betting Insights
The prized possession of the New York Yankees' offseason, Max Fried couldn’t be off to a better start to his Yankee career, posting a terrific 1.42 ERA through five starts. In his last outing, Fried tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings. Fried is known for his groundball tendencies, but he currently has a career-low 50.2% GB%.
The underlying numbers on Fried aren’t as good as you’d expect, though. That should indicate some regression heading Fried's way. The biggest regression stat to watch is batting average against and xBA. Fried's has a strong .205 BAA compared to a .247 xBA. As a ground-ball pitcher, Fried wants opponents to put the ball in play. However, the declining GB%, coupled with teams hitting Fried way harder than last year, contributes to unsavory metrics.
On the offensive end, the Yankees somehow last faced Kevin Gausman in 2022, despite him being in the AL East the entire time. While that's an oddity, Gausman will end the two-year streak of not facing the Yankees.
I still feel like the Yankees offense has yet to reach its ceiling. In April, the Yankees rank third in MLB with a 118 wRC+, including a top-five walk rate (10%) and the eighth-most homers (26).
As usual, Aaron Judge does everything for the Bronx Bombers. The multi-time MVP winner is on the prowl for the trifecta, hitting over .400 with a jarring 251 wRC+. He's putting up Barry Bonds-esque numbers, but he can't do it all himself. The Captain could use production from Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm, as both are hitting below .170 in April with strikeout rates above 26%.
Only four Yankees have a wRC+ above 100 in April — Judge, Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jasson Dominguez. It goes to show Judge's dominance to lift the Yankees to elite offensive numbers when six hitters are below average in wRC+.
Blue Jays Betting Insights
The short porch in New York is a nightmare for fly-ball pitchers. Kevin Gausman is a very fly-ball-heavy pitcher, posting a 31% GB% and a 22% strikeout percentage. That leaves almost 50% for fly balls coming from Gausman, which could be a problem against the Yankees, who are one of the premier slugging teams in MLB.
It's not just the reliance on fly-balls, though, as Gausman has troubling contact metrics. He ranks in the 29th percentile in average exit velo, 14th in barrel rate, and 41st in hard-hit rate. The hard-hit metrics haven't done much damage yet with Gausman entering with a 3.16 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, but the damage will come if that continues.
Toronto excels at neutralizing southpaw pitchers. Only two teams — the Cubs and Yankees have a better wRC+ against left-handed pitching than the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays have just five homers against lefties. But it's not a stunner, as Vlad Guerrero Jr and Anthony Santander have four combined homers after each hitting 35+ last year.
What the Jays will do is force Fried into deep counts with their elite 12% BB rate and 23% K rate against left-handers. Perhaps the heavy contact Blue Jays offense will give Fried the regression he's due to endure.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Over/UnderAnalysis
On the surface, you'd expect a pitchers' duel between two pitchers with dazzling ERA's. That's fair, and I tend to agree.
The difference is that the Blue Jays are elite versus left-handers and the Yankees can put crooked numbers on Gausman with some short porch special homers.
Back the offenses in the Bronx.
Pick: Over 8.5 (play to -130)
Blue Jays vs Yankees Betting Trends
Blue Jays Trends
- Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Blue Jays are 9-4 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
Yankees Trends
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Yankees' 13 last games at home
Yankees vs Blue Jays Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y. |
| Date: | Sunday, April 27 |
| Time: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | MLB Network / MLB.TV |
