Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Martin Perez vs. Alex Faedo
I wrote about this matchup in-depth here. Alex Faedo is a breakout candidate this season after returning from Tommy John surgery in limited fashion last season. His command has taken a 180 in 2023, and his numbers have taken a turn for the better.
Faedo has just a 1.2 BB%, and his Strikeout Rate has jumped above 25 percent. Opponents have just a .233 xBA against Faedo, too. And he’s even due for positive regression, with an xERA (3.05) over a run lower than his actual ERA (4.15). Much of that has to do with his extremely low 65.8 LOB%.
Martin Perez, a big fade target, will counter him on the mound. The left-hander has seen his Strikeout Rate decline while his xBA (.278) and xERA (4.61) have ominously grown from last year. He often relies on pitching to contact and has posted an unsustainable 79.7 LOB%. His career LOB% is about 10% lower.
It’s never fun to fade the Rangers offense, but this pitching matchup is a big edge for me with Faedo coming in as a home underdog. I threw 1u on Tigers moneyline +120 and .5u on the Tigers to win the first five innings +115.
Pick: Tigers ML +120 | Tiger F5 +115 |
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
Ryan Weathers vs. Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara has quietly struggled this season after an NL Cy Young in 2022. The right-hander has just one start with fewer than two runs allowed, and he’s seen his Strikeout Rate begin to decline to early-career numbers.
His pitches don’t have the same effectiveness as last year, and aside from his slider, the xBAs on his three other main pitches have all taken a step back. He ranks in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in xBA (.258) and Hard-hit Rate (41.3%) and has his worst xSLG (.400) since 2019.
Ryan Weathers will start opposite Alcantara on the mound, and I’m looking to buy low on Weathers after back-to-back starts with four earned runs. The left-hander relies on pitching to contact and doesn’t generate many swings and misses or chases, but he induces soft contact at an extremely high rate — which is critical with a low K%.
Weathers’s xERA sits in the mid-3s and opponents have just a .232 xBA and .352 xSLG against the southpaw. When he first made it to the majors, he dealt with issues pertaining to barrels and hard contact, but that number has dropped 15% from his rookie season.
His command can sometimes be an issue, but the Marlins are 24th in BB% against left-handed pitching. While they are in their better split, this is a valuable opportunity to fade the Fish at plus-money.
We’ve long talked about the Padres’ offense lagging behind and their inability to convert with runners in scoring position, but at plus-money with the better offense and a better bullpen, I would grab San Diego as an underdog here.
Pick: Padres ML +120 |
Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
Bryce Elder vs. JP Sears
Hello darkness my old friend…
Bryce Elder takes the mound, and yes, it’s scary to back the 11-45 Athletics to win two straight, but it’s worth a stab against one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball to date. Elder’s xERA (4.45) is nearly 2.5 runs higher than actual (2.01), and he’s been hit incredibly hard, but damage has been mitigated.
Elder relies on pitching on the corners of the zone and on chases — which he’s above average at — or favorable calls from the umpire. He’s been able to limit his walks as opposed to last season, but he’s taken a step back in just about every other area.
Opponents have a .271 xBA against the right-hander and an xSLG of .417. He has been barreled on nearly 8% of balls in play but has thrived off an unsustainable 87.3 LOB%. For perspective, most projections have Elder down at 70%.
There’s going to be a time where he’s hit extremely hard. He’s thrown back-to-back quality starts and has yet to give up more than two runs in May. Elder doesn’t throw hard, but his slider has been extremely effective (.199 xBA).
JP Sears will counter him for Oakland, and Sears has been slightly better than last season but still has some concerns. His Barrel Rate is above double-digits, though his xBA (.249) and Hard-hit Rate have improved from his rookie season.
We’ve also seen the southpaw’s Strikeout Rate increase and walks decrease. The introduction of a sweeper (31.3%) has been a big reason toward his step forward.
I’m putting .5u on the A's moneyline and team total over 2.5 (to -130), and I would back their team total at 3 to (-110) if that number moves. This just seems like a favorable spot for the Oakland bats to continue hitting, even if it’s scary.
I also think it’s worth a look at Ronald Acuña to go over 1.5 total bases. I went that way last night, but he was held hitless. The NL MVP favorite has a .340 average and 1.030 OPS against southpaws.
Pick: A's ML +205 | A's Team Total Over 2.5 | Ronald Acuña Over 1.5 Total Bases -140 |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants, 9:40 p.m. ET
Johan Oviedo vs. John Brebbia
The Pittsburgh Pirates are sliding, but now is a good time to buy low on them. Johan Oviedo takes the mound against the Giants and has been extremely impressive over his last three starts.
Take away his first inning against Texas his last time out, and the right-hander threw 4 2/3 scoreless against a scary offense. The two starts before that? He threw a combined 11 innings of two-run ball and allowed just six hits.
Oviedo has been a bit unlucky with a 68 LOB%. His command can become an issue at times — 4.19 BB/9 — but his Ground Ball Rate remains near 50%. Based on his last few starts, I’m expecting him to return closer to his 2022 form (3.17 xERA, .208 xBA).
The biggest issue for the Pirates over their last few weeks has been at the plate. But in a bullpen game for San Francisco and as an underdog at +130, it’s worth a stab on the Bucs.
Pittsburgh’s bullpen sat inside the top 10 in the last two weeks, and given how high I am on Oviedo overall, I project this closer to the Pirates as ever-so-slight underdogs, so there’s plenty of value here.
Pick: Pirates ML +124 |
