After winning 11 straight bets, our team finally lost one MLB player prop last night after Chris Flexen snuck over his 4.5 K total.
Nonetheless, we're back today with two more props for Tuesday's slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Joey Votto over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
| Reds @ Diamondbacks | |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I think we're about to see Joey Votto get hot again.
The 38-year-old was placed on the IL for most of May. But since returning on May 21, Votto has a 1.020 OPS. He's smashed 15 extra-base hits over 23 games and cashed his bases total in 13 of those appearances.
After a putrid start to the season — that may have been the result of that injury — Votto's power swing has come back around. He's hitting balls just as hard as he did last season, but his season-long numbers have yet to reflect that.
Votto has a good chance to rake today. The Canadian is 13-for-35 lifetime against Zach Davies (Arizona's starter Tuesday) with two doubles and two home runs. He's posted a .455 xSLG mark while only whiffing 11% of the time in those ABs.
If you rarely swing and miss and you make hard contact, you will cash base totals.
I love getting Votto at plus-money today, especially because I think he's undervalued after a very slow start.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+105)
Logan Gilbert under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| Twins @ Mariners | |
| First Pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It's going to be tough to fade Logan Gilbert today. The guy looks like a bona fide ace, having posted a 2.41 ERA in 71 innings over 12 starts — he's averaging almost six innings per game.
However, there are some concerning statistics underlying Gilbert's hot start.
He only strikes out about 8.8 batters per nine innings, which is far from elite. He also pairs his ERA with a 3.91 xERA and a 3.81 xFIP. His HR/FB rate is only 6.5%, and so I'd expect a few more long balls any start now.
Why not tonight? Over the last 30 days against RHPs, the Twins have posted the second-highest wRC+ (131) of any MLB team. They're also tied for second in SLG (.464) and ISO (.194).
The Twins are one of the hardest-hitting teams in MLB, led by Byron Buxton's 18 home runs. Over the last month, only the Yankees have more home runs against righties than the Twins.
While the Twins strike out at a rate just above league average (23%), I'm not too worried about this line. Gilbert has cashed over 6.5 Ks in just five of 12 starts this season, and in just two of seven when he throws less than 100 pitches.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins blow the doors off of Gilbert in this one, knocking him out of the game before he can force enough two-strike counts to cash this number.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Gilbert for just 5.4 Ks Tuesday night, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at just 6.2 Ks.
Both numbers project value on the under.
Pick: Under 6.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
