It's Super Tuesday, and all 30 MLB teams will be suiting up and taking the field today (so long as there are no weather issues).
Let's dive into a few MLB player props that I like today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Ranger Suarez over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
| Phillies @ Brewers | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
After going through the motions in his first few starts, Ranger Suarez has started to heat up again. He's cashed over 4.5 Ks in five of his last six starts.
Moreover, Suarez has finished with exactly four strikeouts on three separate occasions this season. He's a few two-strike counts away from having a 5.5 strikeout total pop somewhere across the market.
For some reason, Suarez attacks more on the road. He's posted an 8.39 K/9 on the road in his career compared to an 8.13 K/9 at home. This season, his away K/9 is up at 8.46 while his home K/9 is down at 7.36.
Suarez will set you up with a sinker and then strike you out with his changeup. The sinker has some movement but not much velocity. However, he gets over a third of batters to whiff on the changeup.
Ranger Suarez generated 7 whiffs on 15 Tamp Bay swings against his changeup tonight. 5 of his 7 strikeouts were finished with the pitch — he has a 2.11 ERA in 5 starts since joining the #Phillies rotation earlier this month. pic.twitter.com/MNf8A7eKhh
— Bob Wankel (@BobWankelCB) August 25, 2021
The Milwaukee lineup is average against both fastballs and changeups. But the Brewers are prone to swinging and missing. Over the last 30 days and against southpaws, the Brewers combine the fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.7%) with the fourth-lowest wRC+ (76).
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Suarez for 5.7 Ks today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.7. There's plenty of value on this line, and it's my favorite prop for Tuesday's slate.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 Total Bases (-135)
| Mariners @ Astros | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It's been a good couple of weeks for Yordan Alvarez, who recently signed a six-year extension in Houston and followed it up by winning AL Player of the Week.
Your @Chevrolet AL and NL Players of the Week:
Yordan Alvarez: .565 AVG, 1.847 OPS, 4 HR, 8 RBI
Brendan Rodgers: .345 AVG, 1.252 OPS, 4 HR, 7 RBI pic.twitter.com/8RHiliiSrU— MLB (@MLB) June 6, 2022
Alvarez is simply crushing the ball right now. He's slugging .610 and his OPS is on the cusp of reaching .996. Not to mention his 16 home runs.
Alvarez currently ranks in the 100th percentile of qualified batters (that is not a typo) in:
- Avg. exit velocity (96.1 mph)
- Hard-hit rate (65.5%)
- xBA (.365)
- xSLG (.788)
- xwOBA (.503)
The rest of his Baseball Savant page looks pretty good, as well.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Alvarez isn't even doing anything in particular that stands out. He's smashing every pitch he sees, only failing to post a positive run value against sinkers.
Alvarez will now take on Chris Flexen, who has always struggled on the road (career 5.55 road ERA) and is reeling this season (4.55 ERA, 5.50 xERA).
But even when Flexen was pitching well, he still struggled against Alvarez. In 10 lifetime PAs against Flexen, Alvarez has posted a 94.9 avg. exit velocity with a 13-degree avg. launch angle, leading to a ridiculous 1.309 xSLG.
Alvarez is only 4-for-10 in those ABs, but he's hit two home runs while striking out just once.
Alvarez has cashed his total bases in seven of the last 10 games and in five of seven games against Seattle this season. Given Flexen is cold, Alvarez is hot, and the history between the two, this is my favorite position player prop of the day.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (-135)
