We had another 2-0 day on Monday as the Action Network MLB Player Props team continues to roll after a tough April.
I've found three more players worth targeting in the prop market today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Carlos Carrasco over 3.5 Strikeouts (-157)
| Astros @ Mets | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
The Astros are one of the most disciplined teams in the league, striking out less than 20% of the time against RHPs this season while simultaneously posting a top-four wRC+.
However, the projections and trends are too strong to ignore for Carlos "Cookie" Carrasco today.
Carrasco's number rarely drops to 3.5. He's consistently in the 4.5 range, which is fair. He did only manage two Ks in his last outing against the Astros, which might explain the drop. Nonetheless, Carrasco has struck out four or more in 11 of his 14 starts this season and in 20 of 26 dating back to last season. That 77% hit rate would imply -333 odds to the over.
Secondly, our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Carrasco for 5.3 Ks today, making this our second-strongest play on the board with an 18.3% edge over the BetRivers line. FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 5 Ks on the dot.
Carrasco still strikes out close to nine batters per nine innings, and his 13% swinging-strike rate ranks in the 75th percentile of qualified pitchers. He still gets guys to bite on his changeup, slider, and curveball — all three pitches have a whiff rate over 30%, and the curveball is closer to 45%.
It's a scary prospect fading the Astros, but there's too much value in Carrasco's line to ignore.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-157)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Jonathan Heasley over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Rangers @ Royals | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Jonathan Heasley has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals' rotation. Not because he's been any good (4.14 ERA, 5.52 xERA), but because he's been eating up innings and inducing strikeouts.
Heasley's managed 41 1/3 innings over eight starts this season, good for close to 5 1/3 per start. He's only striking out about seven batters per nine, but he was north of 10 K/9 in Triple-A and has cashed over 3.5 Ks in four of his last five starts.
He'll battle the Texas Rangers today, who have struck out at a top-10 rate against RHPs both on the season (23.5%) and in June (23%). The Rangers' lineup has posted better numbers recently, but they're still just a league-average offense (90 wRC+ in 2022, 103 wRC+ in June).
Heasley is a four-seam heavy pitcher, and that pitch has been lit up for a .676 SLG and a +6 Run Value. However, there's some hope in his secondary arsenal:
| Pitch Type | Pitches Thrown | Run Value | Whiff Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 159 | -3 | 31.2% |
| Curveball | 120 | -2 | 30% |
| Slider | 75 | -3 | 25% |
| Sinker | 18 | 0 | 40% |
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Heasley for 4.6 Ks against the Rangers, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.4 Ks.
That gives us plenty of value at this low line DraftKings is offering.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Ian Happ 2+ Total Bases (+110)
| Reds @ Cubs | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Ian Happ is having a surprisingly effective season in the middle of the Cubs' lineup. He's posted a 134 OPS+ and is getting on base at a .376 rate. He and Willson Contreras have carried the Cubs to a league-average 99 wRC+.
He's also slashing .330/.410/.560 during June, good for a .970 OPS. Happ's 30-for-91 during the stretch but has managed 13 extra-base hits and an 11:12 K/BB ratio.
As such, he's compiled total bases. Happ's cashed his bases in 15 of his last 30 and five of his last 10. He's picked up 15 total bases in just his last nine games.
Happ's struggling slightly with breaking pitches but has shown marked improvements against fastballs. That should bode well against Castillo's changeup-fastball one-two punch.
Happ has always had a good time with Castillo. In 25 lifetime PAs against the Reds ace, Happ is 8-for-22 with three doubles and a home run. His 93.6 mph avg. exit velocity and 8.4-degree avg. launch angle has produced a .325 xBA and a .544 xSLG.
If Happ can't get one off Castillo today, he's historically dominated the entire Cincinnati pitching staff. Happ has cashed 2+ total bases in 11 of his last 13 against Cincy dating back to mid-2021, racking up a ridiculous 45 bases in that 13 games stretch (3.46 per game).
I love Happ to pick up a couple of hits or one solid double and love this line at plus-money odds.
Pick: 2+ Total Bases (+110)
