Astros vs. Twins odds opened with Houston favored to advance to the ALCS in their best-of-five ALDS series beginning Saturday
The Twins won the American League Central to lock themselves into the 3-seed in the AL postseason field, then defeated the Toronto Blue Jays in two games in the Wild Card Round. The Houston Astros survived an AL West gauntlet at the end of the season to emerge as division champs yet again, and in the process secured the 2-seed and first-round bye.
The Astros, who will host Games 1, 2, and potentially 5, opened as -122 favorites to advance to the ALCS at FanDuel. The Twins were +100 underdogs.
Very quickly, however, the line moved to Astros -150 and Twins +122.
Below, you'll find the full schedule for this series, as well as a breakdown of both teams and how they got to this point.
All odds cited below via FanDuel, which you can pair with our FanDuel promo code for bonus bets. For updated odds on every series throughout the postseason, be sure to visit our MLB futures page. For individual game odds throughout the postseason at a variety of sportsbooks, visit our MLB odds page.
Twins vs. Astros ALDS Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 7, 4:45 p.m. ET, FS1
- Game 2: Sunday, October 8, 8 p.m. ET, FS1
- Game 3: Tuesday, October 10, 4 p.m. ET, FOX
- Game 4: Wednesday, October 11, Time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)
- Game 5: Friday, October 13, Time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)
Minnesota Twins
- World Series Odds: +800
- Pennant Odds: +300
- Regular Season Record: 89-73
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 107 (9th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.03 (6th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 4.01 (5th)
How They Got Here
The Twins will probably be overlooked coming into the playoffs because they won the worst division in MLB. Minnesota has been the best team in the AL Central all year and was really never in doubt of eventually claiming the division title. As a result, the Twins haven’t been in a competitive race and never pushed into the upper-echelon of the AL to garner media attention.
Last season, injuries derailed Minnesota’s season. But now, the Twins have as much pitching and hitting depth as anyone in the American League.
The Twins defeated the Blue Jays 2-0 in the AL Wild Card Round.
Offense
It’s not 100% clear if Byron Buxton will be on the playoff roster, but Minnesota could use his power in the lineup. It’s very much a boom-or-bust lineup that ranks among the worst in strikeout rate and best in barrel rate. The Twins have a bunch of position players to mix into the roster. Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis have all had elite rookie seasons to surround the consistent production of Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler in the middle of the lineup.
Joey Gallo may also be back for the playoffs. He creates a natural platoon partner for lefty masher Jordan Luplow. Rocco Baldelli has a lot of position players at his disposal to mix and match with, but it’s not clear what the Twins’ best lineup is on a day-to-day basis.
On one hand, the lack of balls in play could hurt Minnesota. Traditionally, teams that strike out less do better in the playoffs. But it’s also all about homers against elite pitching, and Minnesota can hit for power with anyone in the AL.
Rotation
No one in the American League has a better 1-2-3 than Minnesota with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. Given the injuries in Texas, the lack of depth in Baltimore and the uncertainty of the Rays and Astros No. 3, the Twins can pitch with anyone.
If the Twins get into a longer series, Kenta Maeda is also an option to start and Bailey Ober could be used as a strike-throwing guy once through the order as a piggyback for one of the starters.
Bullpen
Jhoan Duran is comfortable throwing more than one inning if needed, which could be a boon for Rocco Baldelli as he tries to patch together an inconsistent bullpen. If you just look at the Twins' Stuff+ metrics, the bullpen looks great on paper. In practice, it’s been much more inconsistent.
The key development to watch is Chris Paddack. He returned from Tommy John surgery as a reliever and is throwing harder than ever by maxing out for short stints. The stuff is elite, and he could be a two-inning fireman if the command is there.
It’s hard to trust the bullpen, but Baldelli has options to find outs.
—Anthony Dabbundo
Bet Twins vs. Astros at FanDuel
Houston Astros
- World Series Odds: +450
- Pennant Odds: +175
- Regular Season Record: 90-72
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 112 (5th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.36 (17th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 4.20 (14th)
How They Got Here
Unlike most recent seasons, the Astros have spent the majority of the year playing from behind in the AL West. They’ve fluctuated between the second and third wild-card spots in recent weeks, but their shellacking of the Mariners helped put them in pole position to finish ahead of Seattle for the third and final playoff spot in the American League.
Offense
Despite missing Jose Altuve for a chunk of the year, Houston had plenty of success at the plate with yet another top-five finish in wRC+. The Astros’ brilliance was in their ability to put the ball in play. Houston boasted one of the three lowest strikeout rates in baseball and it managed to couple that with a beefy Isolated Power that put it in the top 10 of the league.
As expected, Yordan Alvarez was the standout performer with a monstrous 173 OPS+. However, it was a big surprise that a 33-year-old Altuve finished second on the team in OPS+ after battling an injury early in the season. While Jeremy Pena took a step back, Kyle Tucker was even better this year and Michael Brantley is healthy and somehow still hitting .300, even at 36 years of age.
Rotation
The Astros’ rotation is utterly complicated, which is why they went out at the deadline and reacquired Justin Verlander. The reigning Cy Young Award winner owns a tidy 3.57 ERA since coming over from the Mets and also drastically improved his strikeout and walk numbers.
After that, it’s kind of a mess. Framber Valdez isn’t quite as dominant as he’s been in years past with waning ground-ball numbers, a troubling hard-hit rate and a poor xERA. He’ll certainly pitch out of the rotation in October, but it’s anyone's guess how he fares. After that, J.P. France has regressed significantly after many solid months and rookie Hunter Brown isn’t quite pitching well enough to get consistent starts in a playoff run.
The x-factor has to be Cristian Javier. Much was made of his fastball velocity as he fell off a cliff this summer, but that’s all poppycock. He made up for the very slim difference late in the season, one that was less than a mile an hour, and showed that it had little correlation to his results.
The real measuring stick for the preseason Cy Young hopeful is strikeouts and in September, he turned it up. Javier’s 33.4% whiff rate is his best since May and, as a result, he’s sat down 35.3% of the hitters he’s faced in September. Javier could be figuring it out at just the right time for the Astros, and despite a 4.74 ERA this month, the return of his strikeout prowess has to give Houston some reason to believe.
Bullpen
The Astros’ bullpen is also complicated as they just missed a top-five finish in ERA, but also find themselves right in the middle of the league in xFIP.
Regardless of how you feel about xFIP, you can’t deny that Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris are menacing. The pair have posted an ERA under two runs, and while Neris has struck out batters at a 28.9% clip, Abreu’s strikeout rate stands at a beastly 35%. The front end of this bullpen is fantastic, but this team will go as the middle of its bullpen goes. Can Kendall Graveman, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton regain their past form?
—Kenny Ducey
