The Cleveland Guardians are in trouble, and it's been a week since they've won a baseball game. The Minnesota Twins kicked off the four-game set at Minneapolis yesterday with a doubleheader victory.
On Saturday night, it'll be Gavin Williams on the mound for the Guardians and Simeon Woods-Richardson for the Twins. Oddsmakers have the Guardians at even-money (+100) on the moneyline across most shops, and the total set at 9.
For tonight, I was able to craft up a correlated 3-leg Twins vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP) that pays out nearly 4-1 odds at FanDuel.
John Feltman's Twins vs Guardians Same-Game Parlay for Saturday
- Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
- Andres Gimenez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
- Guardians ML (+100)
Parlay Odds: +383 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Twins vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Naylor has cooled off in the last month, batting .224 overall. However, he managed to club a homer in yesterday's doubleheader.
There is no mistaking that Naylor hits the ball hard, and has excellent numbers against the fastball. Woods-Richardson throws a four-seamer roughly 40% of the time, and Naylor has a .275 xBA .475 xBA, and .360 xwOBA slash line against it.
He's also batting .257 against right-handers in 2024, with a .518 SLG.
Woods-Richardson is a regression candidate moving forward, especially considering he walks more batters than he should and does not strike out that many hitters. Naylor should be able to bash an extra-base hit or a couple of hits on Saturday night.
Andres Gimenez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Twins vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Despite the Guardians losing ways as of late, it is certainly not because of Gimenez. He is finally turning things around lately, batting .358 over his last 14 games.
It is not surprising to see Gimenez finally breakout offensively, considering many of his metrics suggest he was getting unlucky. His batting average on the season is up to .259, but his xBA is at .270.
He draws a matchup against Woods-Richardson, who throws a combo of fastballs, sliders, and change-ups 90% of the time. That is music to Gimenez's ears, who has great numbers against those pitches.
Here are some of his stats against fastballs and change-ups (60% of Woods Richardson's pitch frequency):
Against Fastball: .284 xBA .416 xSLG .336 xwOBA
Against Changeup: .370 xBA .525 xSLG .400 xwOBA
His numbers dip a bit against the slider, but there is a good chance Gimenez sees a fastball and change-up during his first two plate appearances, and he'll be ready to hit. Gimenez should stay hot tonight, and I expect an extra-base hit or better from him.
Guardians ML (+100)
Twins vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
I figured the Guardians would crash back down to earth eventually, but I did not expect it in this fashion. The Guardians need a win in the worst way on Saturday, and they have the offensive matchup to get the job done.
Woods-Richardson numbers are mediocre, and his metrics project that he should continue to regress moving forward. He has a 4.03 xERA and .245 xBA against, which are both below the league average.
He's allowed limited hard contact, but an 8.8 barrel against suggests that he is getting fortunate in that department. I spoke about his high walk rate and low strikeout rate above, so these are all factors working in the Guardian's favor.
The Guardians are not as elite as many deemed them to be, but they are still a good baseball team. Tonight is a good opportunity to buy low and there seems to be a lot of non-believers out there in the market.
The bullpen needs to be better, but their overall body of work is solid enough that they will turn it around. I'll fade the public and ride with the sharps on this pick.
