Twins vs. Indians Odds
| Twins Odds | +125 |
| Indians Odds | -145 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
Two struggling AL Central teams match up Thursday evening, as the 62-77 Twins will look to complete a four-game sweep against the 68-69 Indians.
While Minnesota is in dead-last place in the division, the Indians are still hanging on to second. However, they're also 11 games back of the White Sox and nine games back of the second wild-card spot.
Will Minnesota pull off the big four-game sweep? Or will the Indians remain save this series?
Let's dig in and find the best angle for this game.
Twins Turn To Dobnak
It's basically the same old story for Minnesota: The offense can be frisky, but is subpar without Nelson Cruz and Byron Buxton. Cruz isn't coming back, of course, and while Buxton has finally returned to the lineup, but has posted just a .381 OPS in his first 12 games back.
Meanwhile, the pitching hasn't done it many favors. Today, the Twins are starting Randy Dobnak, who has posted an xERA over 7.00 while Minnesota has posted a 4-10 record in Dobnak starts.
Dobnak actually had some success in the past two years, even posting a 1.59 ERA in nine 2019 appearances. However, he paired that with a 3.77 xFIP, and most people should have seen regression coming.
But not this much regression. Dobnak is a sinkerballer who has been fairly effective at producing ground balls (55.4% GB rate). He also has had serious long ball issues this season, allowing almost two homers per nine innings.
But while he doesn't miss bats and allows a 91.7 mph average exit velocity, Dobnak shouldn't allow that many home runs going forward, as a 28.5% HR/FB ratio is unsustainable. I'd look for some moderate positive regression from Dobnak moving forward, which is why his xFIP is down around 4.30.
Can Cleveland Avoid Sweep?
Over the past 30 days, the Indians' lineup has posted a 103 wRC+. But the lineup is also really top-heavy, and they are super reliant on José Ramírez and Franmil Reyes to produce runs.
However, while Ramírez has posted a 148 wRC+ over the past month, Reyes has been ineffective. Outside of a four-hit game against Boston, Reyes is just 3-for-23 this month and has posted a .765 OPS since August started.
The Indians will start Cal Quantrill, who was shuffled from the bullpen to the rotation in June and has been quite successful since. In six starts in August, Quantrill posted a 1.42 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
However, he also allowed five earned over four innings in his last outing against Boston. And considering Quantrill's xFIP is over 4.50 since he became a regular starter, I'd look for more of those tough outings moving forward.
Twins-Indians Pick
The Indians probably shouldn't be -150 favorites in this game, but I can't justify taking the Twins as underdogs unless their odds jump considerably.
Quantrill is intriguing, as DraftKings has his strikeout total set at 4.5 today, even though he's gone over that number in eight of his last 10 starts. However, I'm not sure if that's a good bet at the -160 price.
Instead, I'm going to back Quantrill by taking the under 9. Dobnak doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, but both teams have top offensive players who are slumping, and there's two other big reasons the under has value:
- The wind is blowing straight in from left field tonight at a whopping 12 mph. Hopefully, that'll keep some Dobnak fly balls from leaving the park.
- We have a big under-leaning umpire in D.J. Reyburn tonight. Reyburn is 160-143 lifetime to the under, good for a 52.8% hit rate and 12.28 units of profit.
Give me the under 9 at -110 or better.
Pick: Under 9 (-105 | Play to -110)
