On Monday, the Minnesota Twins will battle the New York Mets in an interleague clash of wildcard contenders.
After taking two of three from the Tigers in Detroit, the Twins still hold the second AL wild-card spot — two games up on the Royals and two and a half games back from the Yankees. The Mets split their series with the Braves over the weekend and hold the third NL wild-card spot.
Jose Quintana will get the start for the Mets, and two Twins hitters who will be looking to take advantage are Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton.
Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil will look to stay hot against Simeon Woods-Richardson.
Read on to learn how I'm backing the three hitters in this three-leg same-game parlay.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Twins vs Mets Parlay: SGP Picks (Monday, July 29)
- Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 Hits (-190)
Parlay Odds: +500 (DraftKings)
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
While the Twins would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, they have to consider how many more wins they may have had if they had Royce Lewis for the majority of the season.
Injuries have limited Lewis to just 27 games this season, but he still has 11 home runs, 20 runs batted in, and 1.3 WAR. He was activated off the IL over the weekend and recorded three hits — including a home run — in two games in Detroit.
With Lewis, the sample sizes are small. However, it is particularly noticeable how well he has fared against left-handed pitchers this season. He is 12-for-28 (.429) against the side with two doubles, three home runs, eight RBIs, and a 1.321 OPS. Lewis' home run on Saturday came against left-hander and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal.
Tonight will be the first time Lewis faces Jose Quintana, but Quintana has allowed 15 doubles and 13 home runs to right-handed hitters. Lewis is +450 to hit another home run tonight, but a double tonight would also give him two total bases.
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Another Minnesota candidate to leave the yard on Monday is Byron Buxton.
The Twins' centerfielder has three home runs in his last six games, bringing his season total to 12. He has also had two doubles and 16 total bases in those six games.
Over the last month, Buxton has slashed .323/.380/.692 with nine doubles, five home runs, and 12 RBIs. He has also scored seven of his home runs and has a .911 OPS on the road this season.
Unlike Lewis, Buxton has faced Quintana and hasn't enjoyed much success against him, with just three hits in 18 at-bats. However, the three hits were two doubles and a home run.
If Quintana wins two of the three rounds against Buxton, the Minnesota masher can still clear this line with a single extra-base hit off Quintana or a Mets reliever.
Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 Hits (-190)
Jeff McNeil is a career .290 hitter who hit .300 or better in four of his first five MLB seasons.
After a brutal start, McNeil has begun to resemble his old self of late. Over his last 15 games, McNeil is hitting .342 and has scored eight runs. He has hit in seven of his last 10 games and 10 of his last 15 games.
Now, McNeil doesn't have much power. He hit 23 home runs in 2019, but last season was the only other season he reached double-digit homers, and he finished with exactly 10.
For that reason, I am going with him to record a single hit instead of two bases, as he is more likely to hit a single than Buxton or Lewis. With that said, he has shown more power of late.
McNeil has five doubles and four home runs over his last 15 games. He can match last season's total with another home run, which would also give him two total bases. If you take McNeil for two total bases, the odds jump to +850 for this parlay.
