Twins vs Nationals Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-141 | 9.5 -103o / -120u | -1.5 +112 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 9.5 -103o / -120u | +1.5 -137 |
Let's dive into the Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals odds and picks in our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, May 22.
Simeon Woods Richardson has been serviceable for the Minnesota Twins.
He hasn't walked many hitters (six in 30 1/3 innings) — that being said, he doesn't flash anything noteworthy on the bump. He faces Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals on Wednesday at Nationals Park for the series finale of this MLB interleague series.
Like Woods Richardson, Irvin doesn't walk hitters often (nine in 50 2/3 innings), but he can also keep the ball on the ground. Irvin, however, tends to give up harder contact than his counterpart.
On offense, the Twins sport the superior lineup. While the Nationals have some nice offensive pieces — like CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia — the bottom portion of their lineup isn't strong. Look for Minnesota to string some hits together and take care of business.
Minnesota Twins
Woods Richardson holds a 2.97 ERA vs. a 3.92 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is above 89 mph, and he doesn't induce many ground balls. However, the young righty has a sub-5% walk rate with a 20% strikeout rate. Washington tends to keep the ball on the ground, so this might not be as much of a concern for Woods Richardson.
The Twins lineup has fared well against righties. They have a 109 wRC+ and 8.1% walk rate as a unit in the last month.
Byron Buxton is back in the mix, and although Royce Lewis is sidelined, the Twins have eight active hitters with an xwOBA above .320. Buxton hammers righties when healthy, and Ryan Jeffers has an xwOBA above .400 xwOBA vs. right-handers. This lineup is powerful throughout and can get to the Nats’ bullpen.
In relief, the Twins have a 4.34 xFIP and 10.1% walk rate in the last month. However, this does not tell the entire story as they have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP.
Washington Nationals
Irvin holds a 3.91 ERA vs. a 4.46 xERA. Even with a walk rate of 4.3% and a ground-ball rate in the 66th percentile, the rest of his peripherals are not encouraging.
His Average Exit Velocity is 91.2 mph, which is higher than Woods Richardson’s (89 mph). Irvin's Hard Hit Rate ranks in the 18th percentile, and like Woods Richardson, Irvin does not strike out many hitters.
The Nationals have been a bit worse against righties in the last month. They have an 83 wRC+ with a 10% walk rate. This has mostly been weighed down by the bottom of their batting order.
The Nats have four hitters who carry an xwOBA above .320 (Abrams, Garcia, Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker), but the lineup really tails off from there. Since they hit so many grounders and don't make much hard contact, the Twins’ pitching staff should be in good shape.
Washington's relief staff has better overall numbers than Minnesota’s in the last month. Nats relievers have a 4.00 xFIP with a 9% walk rate — they only have three arms above a 4.00 xFIP, an advantage over Minnesota.
On the other hand, Irvin will likely leave the game earlier because of how potent the Minnesota lineup. This should even out the discrepancy between the two relief staffs.
Twins vs. Nationals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Minnesota is the road favorite for a reason. They've hammered righties lately, and I don't see Irvin and the Nats slowing them down. Play them on the moneyline up to -155.
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