Twins vs Pirates Picks | Friday Odds & Predictions (6/7)
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8 -108o / -112u | -125 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8 -108o / -112u | +105 |
Joe Ryan has been elite for the Minnesota Twins this year. He has done so by not permitting walks and missing bats at a well-above-average rate.
The Twins have done well against righties lately and will be facing Mitch Keller and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday. Keller has had some favorable results. His walk rate is above average, but unlike Ryan, he does not strike many hitters out. Additionally, the Pirates have a top-heavy lineup.
This is where the gap resides with comparable relief pitching, so Minnesota should hold the edge. Let's dive into the Twins vs Piratesodds — which have the Twins as -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-108o/-112u) — and make a Twins vs Pirates prediction.
Minnesota Twins
Ryan does not limit fly balls necessarily. That has been his one shortcoming this year — he ranks in the middle of the pack in Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity. However, Ryan has one of the best walk rates for a starting pitcher at under 4%. His strikeout rate is 27%, so those two numbers have yielded a 3.38 ERA and 3.11 xERA. He can get even better despite a weak last start against the Houston Astros.
The Twins have a 97 wRC+, 8.6% walk rate and 22.5% strikeout rate off righties in the last month. That does not tell the whole story, however. They have eight hitters on the active roster with a .320+ xwOBA against right-handers in that same timeframe. Getting Royce Lewis back into the mix was a welcomed addition.
The Twins' relief staff has had its struggles lately. They only have one arm below a 4.00 xFIP. Jhoan Duran will eventually stabilize, but overall, the Twins have a 4.52 xFIP out of the bullpen. That will not usually suffice, but it only truly become worrisome against the top of the Pirates’ order.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Keller has a sub-4.00 ERA and 4.39 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are well below average, and his strikeout rate is only 21.2%. That is a major dropoff since 2023, when his strikeout rate was over 25%. His walk rate is a touch over 6%, but since Minnesota has some patient hitters and a deep lineup, Keller could run into some situations with runners on base.
The Pirates have an 87 wRC+ off right-handers with a 7.1% walk rate and 26.7% strikeout rate. Simply put, Ryan is not a great matchup for them as a whole. He will notch his strikeouts, and much of the lineup swings often. The Pirates also have the fifth-highest collective ground-ball rate in MLB, which might eliminate one of Ryan’s greatest weaknesses. That said, Pittsburgh has five active batters above a .320 xwOBA. As long as Ryan works around those hitters, he should pitch deep into this outing.
The Pirates’ relief staff has had its woes in 2024. In the last month, like the Twins, the Pirates’ bullpen has an awful xFIP, standing at 4.63. They walk more than 11% of batters and only have a 22.4% strikeout rate. That will not bode well if Keller does not pitch deep into the game.
Twins vs. Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
Minnesota is favored for a reason, but this moneyline does not justify how good Ryan has been and can be against the Pirates. The Twins have a much more powerful and patient lineup lately and should be able to force Keller out as early as possible. That should give them a chance to hit against the weaker pitchers available in the contest.
Take the Twins to win this one at PNC Park, and bet them up to -145.
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