Twins vs Royals Odds, Pick | MLB Opening Day Prediction
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
Here's everything you need to know about Twins vs Royals on Thursday, March 28 — including odds and a prediction.
Twins vs Royals odds have Minnesota as a -130 favorite on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 8.5. Kansas City hands the ball to left-hander Cole Ragans for Opening Day, and I am looking at his prop market for my Twins vs Royals pick for Thursday afternoon.
Let's dive into why I am backing Ragans as I make a Twins vs Royals prediction.
Minnesota Twins
While Minnesota won the AL Central last season, it certainly was not because of its routine hitting. What I mean by that is the Twins carried a lot of power in their lineup, but their success came from extra-base hits and slugging, not for their ability to make contact.
They ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in batting average. When you have a team that is more built on power than contact, you still generate runs but the outs more frequently come via strikeout.
That is exactly what we saw with this lineup in 2023 as the Twins ranked last in the league in K%. Looking at Thursday's projected starting lineup, we should expect more of the same as six of the nine batters ended last year with a K% north of 22%.
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota's strikeout woes are likely to continue against Ragans. He looked like a guy who could one day win a Cy Young with his performance last season in Kansas City.
While it wasn't the largest sample size, Ragans went 5-2 with a commanding 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 12 starts with the Royals in 2023. His underlying metrics suggest that these results were not a product of luck, considering he ranked in the 84th percentile or higher in xERA and xBA.
The vast majority of Ragans' success came from his ability to retire hitters via punchout. Last year, he ranked in the 83rd percentile in Whiff% and 85th percentile in K%.
Ragans pumps his fastball to set up his three different off-speed pitches, each of which carried a Whiff% north of 29% last season.
Twins vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Kansas City fans are expecting a massive year from Ragans, and I think they will get one. He demonstrated his Cy Young potential last season at just 25 years old, and this guy is theoretically only going to continue to improve.
Ragans was tremendous in the strikeout department, recording seven or more punchouts in eight of his final 11 starts last year. This trend is likely to continue against Minnesota, a team that finished last in K% in 2023.
We are catching a particularly good price on over 6.5 strikeouts at +120 via DraftKings, a line that is 10 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
