Twins vs. Tigers Prediction
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+107 | 7 +100/-117 | +1.5 -207 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-127 | 7 +100/-117 | -1.5 +171 |
The Tigers snapped a three-game slide with a feel-good win over the Pirates on Tuesday and will return home for a weekend set against the struggling Twins, who managed to pick up a win over their own against the Dodgers in their most recent game.
Will Pablo Lopez have the goods to start a Minnesota winning streak, or will he be bested by Tarik Skubal in this matinee?
Let's break it all down and make a Twins vs. Tigers prediction below.
Minnesota Twins
This has looked like a deflated Twins offense ever since the loss of Royce Lewis on Opening Day. Matt Wallner, Willi Castro and Edouard Julien haven't looked like big-league players to this point in the season, Carlos Santana looks to be on his last legs and it's all amounted to the third-worst wRC+ in the league. It's a shame, too, because it's spoiled excellent starts by Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Correa and some wonderful performances from this team's starting staff.
Before we get to Lopez, let's quickly spell out what's wrong with Minnesota. After ranking fourth in walk rate a season ago, this team is barely at the league average in that regard, and while we've grown to expect the strikeouts, a .133 Isolated Power is a head-scratching mark. Balls have been hit hard, but far too many have come on the ground for a team centered around driving the ball out of the park.
Lopez, ironically, has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard with just one home run against him in two starts after allowing a combined 50 round-trippers over the past two seasons. Despite that, and his shiny 2.84 ERA, his Expected Batting Average is up to .262, which is likely due to a slight decrease in ground balls. He's also striking out just 18.8% of batters through two starts after flirting with the elite 30% tier a year ago, which may just be a fluke considering his whiff rate remains pretty strong.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers were one of the worst offenses in baseball a season ago, but against right-handed pitching they were markedly better. It was to be expected with a young team that didn't yet have some of its brightest talents, and this season — while things haven't appeared quite so glamorous on the surface — they've taken a slight step forward.
Detroit is lacking power at the moment with Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene struggling out of the gate, but the Tigers have gotten plenty from Kerry Carpenter. The issue has been that he's sat against lefties. Against a righty on Thursday, Detroit could return some of its power, though it will have to contend with a large ballpark.
On the hill, the Tigers should really have no concerns. Skubal has looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball through two weeks, striking out 32.6% of the batters he's faced with excellent expected numbers and a low walk rate. His ground-ball rate has fallen a bit from his career-best 51.8% mark a year ago, but in a spacious Comerica Park, that shouldn't be too much of an issue.
Twins vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
We've got two teams swinging for fly balls squaring off on Thursday and a park that shouldn't really reward them quite so much. With how dominant Skubal has been, and how dreadful Minnesota has looked, it'd be a real stretch to say this'll be a high-scoring affair.
On the flip side, Detroit should have a bit more promise than its numbers indicate given the talent in the lineup, but Lopez has been incredibly solid in his own right and his whiff rate indicates his strikeout numbers should recover — likely on Thursday when he faces a team punching out in 23% of its at-bats.
I think the under is the best play here, even at this number, but I'm only betting it to -125. At that point, I might take a look at the Tigers as short home favorites.
