The New York Yankees are cruising with five straight wins, and now they'll welcome the Twins into Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night. The Bronx Bombers have owned the Twins to the tune of a 119-44 regular-season record since 2002.
To make matters more arduous for the visitors, New York will be sending wunderkind Luis Gil to the hill opposite the struggling Bailey Ober.
But in a bit of good news for Minnesota, the Twins are expected to return their best hitter in Royce Lewis to the lineup.
Can Lewis lift this offense to new heights, or will Minnesota fall victim once again to the Yankees?
Here's my Twins vs Yankees Tuesday parlay, which includes SGP picks for Luis Gil, Royce Lewis and a moneyline.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Twins vs Yankees +675 Tuesday Parlay: SGP Picks
- Yankees ML (-180)
- Luis Gil Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-152)
- Royce Lewis 2+ Total Bases (+170)
- Parlay Odds: +675 (FanDuel)
Yankees ML (-180)
First and foremost, let's talk about what the outcome will be here — which really should be a sixth straight victory for the Yankees.
Most of that has to do with Ober, who pitched to a 5.46 ERA in the month of May with seven home runs in six starts. He allowed at least one in all but one of those outings and surrendered three against the Royals last week in five disastrous innings.
Ober's an extreme fly-ball pitcher at 32% this season and 33.9% for his career, which leaves the league average of 23.6% in the dust. Coupled with a slightly above-average hard-hit rate and a whopping 11.3% barrel rate, it's no surprise that he's allowed so many gopher balls and pitched to a bad .443 expected slugging percentage.
Those are not traits you want to carry into a matchup with the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where fly balls truly fly.
The Yankees own the second-best Isolated Power in baseball this season with the best home run-to-fly ball ratio at 15%, so it would seem there will be plenty of power to go around here against Ober.
The righty has survived off a decent 25% strikeout rate for the past two seasons, but with the Yankees doing an excellent job in that area, it's hard to see this one going well for him.
Mix in the dominant Gil, who we'll get to in a moment, and this should be far too much for Minnesota to overcome.
Luis Gil Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-152)
Gil has struck out eight or more in two straight outings and has done so against a whopping 31.7% of the batters he's faced this season.
Sure, the numbers have fluctuated a bit start-to-start and he's eclipsed six Ks in only four of his 11 starts, but this is a bad spot for the Twins given they're sporting the seventh-highest called strike rate and the 10th-worst swinging strike rate over the last two weeks. That has amounted to a 23% punchout rate.
Minnesota may be hitting the ball much better right now than it has for the season, but it's lacked the ability to walk, which should really hurt it against a pitcher who has really only struggled in the control department.
The Twins have been passive to a fault and contact has been a struggle, leading me to believe this will be another dominant outing for Gil.
I'll play this one a bit safer because we'll take a Twins hitter for our last leg, which will boost the odds significantly.
Royce Lewis 2+ Total Bases (+170)
If you know me, it should come as no surprise that I'm believing in Royce Lewis in his return from the quad injury he suffered on Opening Day.
He's done nothing but hit whenever he's been on the field, and the two times he returned from injury last year, he did so with a bang.
Lewis went 3-for-8 in those two games with a three-run homer in his season debut last year. He has a flair for the dramatic like nobody else in this sport.
He'll step into a hitter-friendly park against what Baseball Reference would classify as a "power" pitcher in Gil — a split he's slashed .311/.355/.534 in.
The conditions for offense here should be friendly to Lewis, who thrives against strikeout arms and has smoked fly-ball pitchers like Gil with a .319 average and .593 slugging percentage. Buy the dip, I beg you.
