Twins-Yankees Betting Predictions, Picks & Odds: Game 3 ALDS
Probable starters: Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA)
- Yankees odds: -150
- Twins odds: +130
- Over/Under: 9
- First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET on FS1
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
After dropping Games 1 and 2 in the Bronx, the Twins are on the brink of elimination at home and have to feel completely deflated.
They held a 2-0 lead in Game 1, but have been outscored 18-4 since then, dropping their 14th and 15th consecutive postseason games in the process – a new Major League record.
What's more, is that 12 of those 15 losses have come against the Yankees – who are one win away from eliminating the Twins in the playoffs for the fifth time. The Twins' last playoff win against the Yankees came in 2004.
Will Minnesota spend the entire offseason thinking about this ignominious streak, or can they finally get off the schneid and beat the team that has repeatedly tormented them in the playoffs?
The Starters
Severino proved to be an ace for the Yankees between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he missed most of this year with shoulder and lat injuries.
His velocity was noticeably lower upon his return in September:
And in a small sample, his swinging-strike rate has declined slightly.
Severino was nevertheless impressive on Sept. 22, with nine strikeouts and no walks over five shutout innings against the Blue Jays:
But he was less effective in his final start of the season in Texas, walking four batters in three innings.
Severino offers a terrific three-pitch four-seam fastball/changeup/slider combination, and if he's efficient, I would expect the Yankees to let him stretch out his arm for five innings.
When healthy, Severino is the Yankees' best starting pitcher, and they'll need him to be on his game if they face the dynamic Astros rotation.
Jake Odorizzi joined the Twins in 2018, but saw a velocity bump this season, leading to more swinging strikes, a higher strikeout rate, and a career year.
He still has below-average fastball velocity, but Odorizzi has been even better down the stretch, posting a 3.04 ERA (2.16 FIP, 3.54 xFIP) since the beginning of August.
He also has a varied arsenal, throwing at least six different pitches, but he ranked 5th in total fastball value this year due to his four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, and cutter combination.
But he doesn't have many weaknesses, and can spot all of those pitches where he wants to:
Jake Odorizzi, Filthy 3 Pitch K of Tyler White. 😨 pic.twitter.com/fLG5ThGyUA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2019
The Twins bullpen has looked extremely shaky going against this Yankees offense, and it will take a significant effort from Odorizzi to put Minnesota in an excellent position to win.
The Bullpens
On the season, the Twins bullpen ranks 1st in FIP, 6th in xFIP, and 3rd in K-BB%. By the same metrics, the Yankees rank 9th, 4th, and 6th.
Minnesota has blown through the majority of their bullpen in the first two games of this series, with Tyler Duffey (52 combined pitches) getting the worst of it.
However, their best reliever, Taylor Rogers, has yet to pitch in the series, and only Duffey, Zack Littell (11 pitches), and Cody Stashak (31 `pitches) entered both games.
Adam Ottavino and Tommy Kahnle were the only Yankees relievers to pitch in the first two games of the series, and everyone should be available following the day of rest.
Projected Lineups
Data per FantasyLabs
Weather Report
Data per Sports Insights
Gary Cederstrom has a slight lean to home teams in his career (55.6%), including a 6-2 record in the postseason.
Totals are 4-4 in those postseason games, and right around 50% in Cederstorm's career.
Trends to Know
Odorizzi went 18-9-3 (66.7%) on the first five innings (F5) moneyline in 2019.
Severino is 43-21-10 (67.2%) on the F5 moneyline since the start of the 2017 season. In his postseason career, he's 3-2-1 on the F5 moneyline.
The Minnesota Twins were 8-11 (42%) as a home underdog this season, while the Yankees are 33-23 (58.9%) as a road favorite.
In outdoor road games this year, the Yankees were 44-22-1 (66.7%) to the over, generating a consistent $100 bettor $2,048 (30.6% ROI).
Model Projected Odds
Favorite Bet
I projected the Yankees as a -128 favorite in this game, and I set the total at 8.94 runs. Therefore, I don't see value on either the full game moneyline or total.
I do see slight value on the Yankees first half moneyline, but not enough to make it actionable.
I have their fair F5 moneyline odds projected at -156, equal to 60.9%, while their consensus F5 price (-150) is about 1% lower.
If I get a price closer to -140 in the first half of the game, I would consider taking the Yankees. Otherwise, I will pass on this one entirely.
