Twins vs. Yankees Odds
| Twins Odds | +170 |
| Yankees Odds | -200 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Yankees' lineup finally showed some signs of life as they bashed three home runs on their way to a 5-2 victory on Monday. However, tonight's second act of this series may look very different.
New York's ace, Gerrit Cole, will get the ball and may have revenge on his mind as his first matchup with the Minnesota Twins was a disaster from the start. It will be interesting to see one of the game's best approaches this outing.
Opposing Cole for the Twins will be stud rookie Joe Ryan. The 26-year-old right-hander has quickly become the leader of a veteran pitching staff. He has shown potential and poise beyond his years. Can he rise to the occasion in this marquee pitching matchup? Let's dive in to find out.
Can Twins Repeat Success Against Cole?
It has been a rough go of it for the Twins at the dish over the past two weeks. However, they have still been finding ways to win and currently sit just one game out of the American League Central. Although, given how things have been lately, their offensive prognosis is rather bleak entering this matchup.
Over the past two weeks, the Twins have the ninth-highest strikeout rate across the majors and rank 23rd in team batting average. While they have struggled mightily, their underlying numbers suggest this team still has room to grow. Their team xSLG and XWOBACON are both around 20 points higher than their current numbers.
Despite being in line for positive regression in the power department, it will be difficult for them to repeat their last performance against Cole. Minnesota began that game by hitting back-to-back-to-back homers in the bottom of the first as a start to tagging Cole for seven earned runs on eight hits and knocking him out in the third inning. Cole allowed six home runs in June and the Twins hit five of them in that one outing.
As we should expect an entirely different outing from Cole as he looks to keep the ball in the yard, there is more than that to support a bounce-back performance. The Twins' order has faced Cole a combined 72 times, and in large part, they have gotten the better of him as they are hitting .292 off him. Mind you that excludes Byron Buxton, who hit two of the five homers off Cole earlier this season. Unfortunately, he will miss tonight's contest as he's on the IL.
Getting back to Cole, that .292 team average is due to come way down as their average exit velocity is just 87.3 mph, which points to an xBA of .238, and an xSLG that is over 100 points lower.
Will Yankees Continue to Hit?
Speaking of bounce-back performances, we should get another one with Ryan. He enters this start after being clobbered by the Red Sox. He allowed five earned runs on eight hits. It was just the third time this season that he's allowed more than three earned runs in a start.
Each of the first two times we saw Ryan get knocked around, he has come back and thrown a quality start in the following outing. I expect him to show his advanced poise once again and turn in a good outing, as I'm not ready to declare the Yankees fixed after one five-run performance.
Over the last two weeks, the Yankees have hit just .208 and have a .236 BABIP. That means not only are they not getting hits; they are not even making quality contact on a consistent basis. That is not from a lack of contact either, as they have a 19.9 percent strikeout rate over that span, which is the 23rd lowest in the league.
Monday may have been a bright spot, but it will be tough for them against Ryan, who has only allowed multiple home runs in three outings all season.
Twins-Yankees Pick
Each of these two starters has had a very different path entering this matchup tonight, but they are both heading in the right direction. Of course, it also helps that both of these lineups have been slumping hard of late.
We should see Cole and Ryan duel through the early going of this one. They both have pedigrees and trends to bounce back in a big way and should combine to minimalize the scoring.
Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-115)
