Twins vs Yankees Odds: Tuesday F5 Prediction
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+154 | 7.5 -115oo / -105uu | +1.5 -130 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-185 | 7.5 -115oo / -105u | -1.5 +110 |
The Minnesota Twins will travel to the Bronx to kick off a three-game series against the New York Yankees on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees (42-19) are red-hot and have won eight of their last 10. This has led them to the best record in the AL and tied for the best mark in baseball.
The Twins (33-26) are having a strong start to their season as well, but still find themselves in third place in the AL Central, trailing the Cleveland Guardians by six games and the Kansas City Royals by two. The Twins do hold a wild-card spot at the moment — though they'll need to keep pace if they want to make the playoffs again.
The latest Twins vs Yankees odds have the Yankees listed as -185 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5 (-115o /-105u). Find my Twins vs Yankees prediction on the first five (F5) innings spread below.
Minnesota Twins
Starting on the bump for Minnesota today will be 6-foot-9 righty Bailey Ober.
Ober’s season isn’t off to an ideal start, as he has a 4.89 ERA over his 11 starts. However, he appears to be the same pitcher he has been in recent years; he's just getting different results. He has a 4.04 xERA and 4.18 FIP this season, which are closer to his career averages.
Ober has fallen victim to some bad luck numbers, putting up a 67.3% strand rate compared to his career average of 75.9%.
The 28-year-old starter ranks in the 56th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 55th in average exit velocity but sits in just the ninth percentile in barrel rate. He's also only in the fourth percentile in ground-ball rate and has the highest fly-ball rate allowed in the majors this year at 52.5% among pitchers with 50-plus innings pitched.
Among this same subset of pitchers, Ober’s Stuff+ of 89 ranks just 83rd out of 110. He has located these pitches well, though, coming in sixth in Location+.
For a pitcher without great stuff, this has helped him post above-average whiff and strikeout rates to this point in the season.
Minnesota’s offense ranks 12th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA. It sits fourth in ISO and 10th in slugging percentage, so it does have some power, but it still ranks 21st in walk rate and 17th in strikeout rate.
The Twins are 17th in hard-hit rate, 11th in barrel rate and 16th in average exit velocity. They hit the third-lowest rate of ground balls in the league and have the fifth-best fly ball rate with the eighth-highest pull rate, resulting in some of these power numbers being high despite not hitting the ball extraordinarily hard.
New York Yankees
Luis Gil will take the mound for the Yankees tonight.
He has been great to start the year, posting a 1.99 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 63 1/3 IP. This has led to him winning AL Rookie of the Month for May, and he's the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year at +140.
While Gil has been impressive, his ERA may be a bit lower than what we would expect it to be going forward. He has a 2.77 xERA, 2.98 FIP and 3.52 SIERA. He has been aided by a high strand rate (83.1%) and a low BABIP (.187), which will likely regress a bit.
Gil has done extraordinarily well at avoiding quality contact, which has led to this BABIP number. He ranks in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 65th percentile in barrel rate and 75th percentile in average exit velocity.
Gil also sits ninth in Stuff+ this season among qualified pitchers, which has helped him put up an 85th-percentile whiff rate and 92nd-percentile strikeout rate.
However, he has struggled with his command, ranking dead last (73rd) among qualifying pitchers in Location+ and in the 13th percentile in walk rate.
The Yankees offense is red hot right now. Through these first two months of the season, they have the best offense in the game in many categories. They rank first in wRC+, wOBA and SLG, as well as second in OBP and ISO.
New York walks at the highest rate in baseball and strikes out at the seventh-lowest rate, putting plenty of runners on base and plenty of balls in play.
When they put these balls in play, they're also crushing them. The Yankees sit fourth in hard-hit rate, first in barrel rate and third in average exit velocity. Because of this, they rank first in xSLG, xwOBA and xwOBACON.
Twins vs Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
New York is dominating right now, and with the way Gil has pitched this season, it’s hard to not want to back the Yankees.
The Twins’ offense is fine, but Gil’s main issue this season has been walks, which isn’t something Minnesota typically takes advantage of.
While Gil's ERA may creep above 2.00 at some point soon, all signs point to him having a strong chance of putting together a respectable outing today.
On the other side, Ober has been unlucky this season to an extent, but he's also allowing a ton of barrels. With a minuscule ground-ball rate and low fastball velocity, that isn’t exactly the combination a pitcher wants going up against this New York lineup.
Ober’s ability to avoid walks may aid him in keeping some of this lineup off the basepaths, but you can only stop the Bronx Bombers from hitting the ball hard for so long.
Despite the Yankees being heavy favorites in this matchup, I still believe they should have the upper hand in the Bronx tonight.
My favorite value would be to take the Yankees on the run line over the first five innings at -0.5. This lineup is on a tear right now, and Gil has been great himself, making this team a bad fade at the moment.
Pick: Yankees F5 -0.5 (-115 · Play to -120)
