Public bettors made out like bandits in Game 1 of the Yankees-Twins ALDS series. Not only did favored New York take the opener, but the total soared over its listed line of 8.5 in the Yanks' 10-4 win.
Perhaps influenced by Friday's high final score (more likely a result of the pitching matchup), today's total opened a nudge higher at 9.5. But even that hasn't swayed the view of the public.
Seventy-nine percent of bets have hit the over today, making it the most popular of Saturday's MLB bet options. Oddsmakers, however, have been more concerned with the bets landing on the other side.
The 21% of bettors taking the under have generated 41% of actual money being wagered on this total, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are expecting a lower-scoring game.
Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed that proposition.
Three signals — indicators of sharp money hitting the market — have been triggered on the under at 9.5. That's been enough for sportsbooks to drop this line, even though it means an easier bet for most customers.
The fact that the line has fallen with more money (59%) hitting the over means that oddsmakers are reacting solely out of respect for the bettors on the under. In other words, they have no monetary reason to dropping this number; they're simply following the "advice" of their sharper customers.
It's also worth noting that all three signals hit the under at 9.5. Nine is the most common combined final score for baseball games, which makes 9.5 more of an important number than most bettors might realize.
There's still plenty of time remaining until first pitch, so it's certainly possible that we'll see smart money hit the new number on either side.
