October baseball.
Two of the finest words in sports.
We’re almost there, but we first have four more weeks to determine who’ll reach the postseason. That also means we have four weeks to determine who’ll win prestigious awards such as the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in each league.
Here’s a closer look at the state of each race. All odds are according to FanDuel, unless otherwise noted.
American League MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | -4500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +1300 |
| Juan Soto | +6500 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +12000 |
| Rafael Devers | +20000 |
Breakdown: It’s Aaron Judge's world and we're all just living in it. He's (once again) having a season for the ages and leading baseball in several categories by significant margins. His 51 home runs are seven more than the next closest player (Shohei Ohtani), his 123 RBIs are 18 more than Jose Ramirez's 105 and his 1.176 OPS is 0.169 more than Bobby Witt's 1.007. For comparison's sake, that gap is the same as the gap from the second-highest player to the 18th (Seiya Suzuki).
National League MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | -4000 |
| Francisco Lindor | +750 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +3500 |
| Elly De La Cruz | +15000 |
| Bryce Harper | +15000 |
Breakdown: Can a DH win MVP? Yes. Should a DH win MVP? That’s the question. Ohtani’s dominance at the plate is unparalleled in the NL. However, that’s the only impact he makes as he isn't pitching and is rehabbing his elbow. As such, countless articles and talk shows will discuss whether someone who doesn’t play the field and impacts only one aspect of the game should take home the award.
Oddsmakers think that's a long shot, but should voters agree with that notion, the player with the next best odds is Francisco Lindor. He’s been terrific at the plate and in the field, batting .269 with 29 home runs, 25 steals, 80 RBIs and an .831 OPS while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. Add it all up and he has a higher WAR (6.8) than Ohtani (6.5), according to Fangraphs.
American League Cy Young
Odds according to DraftKings.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | -5000 |
| Corbin Burnes | +2000 |
| Emmanuel Clase | +2000 |
| Logan Gilbert | +4000 |
| Seth Lugo | +4000 |
Breakdown: This one’s off the board at multiple books as Tarik Skubal’s such a massive favorite. In fact, he's in line to win pitching’s triple crown – leading the league in wins (15), ERA (2.51) and strikeouts (201).
Corbin Burnes was just behind him for much of the reason before falling off a cliff in August. Burnes went 1-3 in five starts with a 7.36 ERA. His 21 earned runs given up were two less than he surrendered in June and July combined.
National League Cy Young
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chris Sale | -550 |
| Zack Wheeler | +300 |
| Logan Webb | +7000 |
| Hunter Greene | +7000 |
| Dylan Cease | +9000 |
Breakdown: Chris Sale was written off as washed up, old and injured. In the words of Geno Smith, he didn’t write back. Moving to Atlanta has done wonders for the 35-year-old, who has reclaimed his elite form. Sale ranks second in baseball in ERA (2.58), second in wins (15), third in strikeouts (197) and seventh in WHIP (1.02).
He’s not the only pitcher in his mid-30s making a play for the Cy Young, though. Zack Wheeler’s also been dominant, ranking third in ERA (2.63), third in WHIP (0.98), sixth in strikeouts (183) and tied for sixth with 13 wins.
American League Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Colton Cowser | -230 |
| Austin Wells | +170 |
| Wilyer Abreu | +2800 |
| Colton Cowser | +130 |
| Colton Keith | +1000 |
Breakdown: Baltimore’s loaded with young talent and Colton Cowser’s proven to be among the most valuable. The outfielder’s emerged as a key cog in the Orioles’ loaded roster, batting .245 with 20 home runs, 60 RBIs and a .770 OPS.
However, he’s far from the only valuable youngster making an impact in his first full season. Yankees catcher Austin Wells has come on strong in recent months. In fact, he’s made such an impression that New York had him batting behind Aaron Judge for most of the summer.
National League Rookie of the Year
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill | -900 |
| Paul Skenes | +550 |
| Jackson Chourio | +2800 |
| Shota Imanaga | +20000 |
| Masyn Winn | +20000 |
Breakdown: It’s almost impossible to think a rookie getting the nod to start the All-Star Game wouldn’t take home the award, but that might very well be the case. In fact, oddsmakers think it’s more likely than not.
Paul Skenes was a ridiculous -5000 favorite in August, but fellow rookie All-Star Jackson Merrill’s passed him as we enter the home stretch. That’s more a statement of Merrill’s tremendous second half than Skenes’ failures as the Pirates pitcher is still performing extremely well. Sure, he hasn’t been as dominating as he was for the first few months of his career, but he remains one of the league’s premiere strikeout artists. Meanwhile, Merrill’s a major reason the Padres are favored to win a wild-card spot as he’s batting .289 with 21 home runs, 79 RBIs and an .812 OPS.
