Make sure you get your picks in early as the Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Sunday showdown begins at 12:05 p.m. ET on Roku.
The Braves enter as -185 favorites, while the Nationals come in as +155 'dogs. Atlanta took the first two games of this series in nail-biting fashion, but those count the same as 10-run wins in Atlanta's hunt for a wild-card spot. Here's my Nationals vs. Braves prediction.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 8 -110/-110 | +1.5 -135 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-187 | 8 -110/-110 | -1.5 +114 |
Nationals vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| DJ Herz | Stat | Reynaldo Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 4.15/3.34 | ERA /xERA | 2.05/4.28 |
| 3.98/3.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.02/3.72 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 3.6 | K-BB% | 2.9 |
| 37.4 | GB% | 38.8 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul’s Nationals vs Braves Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Herz is Legit
In yet another rebuilding season, DJ Herz has emerged as a piece of the future. Herz is set to start Sunday and has pitched to a 4.15 ERA and a 3.98 FIP though 60 2/3 innings (13 starts) this season. He's always been a strikeout guy dating back to his time in the minors, but racking up 75 strikeouts through 60 2/3 major-league innings is very impressive. A majority of his strikeouts come from the fastball, which he throws 55.5% of the time.
However, a misplaced fastball often leads to some rockets from opposing hitters. Herz's fastball averages 93.5 mph, so he can't blow it by hitters like fellow southpaws, Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. The lack of top-end velocity makes location paramount to Herz's success.
The Nationals' offense ranks 13th in MLB with a 107 wRC+ in August. The Nationals don't have much power, but combat that with elite bat-to-ball skills. They have the second-best strikeout rate in baseball this month and have stolen 27 bases, the third most in MLB behind the Rays and Guardians.
I'm terrified of the Nationals bullpen. It would be huge for Washington if Herz can get through six innings and limit the bullpen's impact on the game.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Can Lopez Avoid Trouble?
After missing three weeks with an injury, Reynaldo Lopez returned Tuesday and held the Phillies to one run over 5 1/3 innings with a season-high 10 strikeouts. He probably isn't striking out 10 hitters on the Nationals, but can he still find success?
Lopez has a 2.05 ERA and a 3.02 FIP with expected numbers significantly worse in both areas. According to BaseballSavant, Lopez ranks below the 30th percentile in barrel percentage, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. That, along with Lopez's 3.12 BB/9, is why his expected numbers are so extreme compared to his base stats.
Lopez also excels at stranding runner, leaving 85.9% of runners on base without scoring. A lot of people reach base against Lopez, but when danger is nearby, he rears back and finds a little extra velocity to escape without too much damage. Some of that is luck as leaving 85% of runners stranded is unsustainable, but it could be due to his pedigree as a reliever as he's used to coming into sticky situations.
The Braves haven't scored more than four runs since Austin Riley went down with a broken hand on August 19th. The current state of Atlanta's roster just isn't very good.
Besides Marcell Ozuna, Ramon Laureano and Jorge Soler, who is a trustworthy bat in the Braves' lineup? Whit Merrifield is the most reliable with a 118 wRC+ in August. He's also hitting over .300 in the past week.
Part of the bad is Matt Olson, who is notoriously streaky and on the downside of his streakiness at the moment. Over the past week, Olson is hitting below .100 with no homers.
Nationals vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
My best bet for this game is to back the 'dog. Herz is worth backing due to his elite strikeout rate as the Braves are striking out over 25% of the time in August. I'll roll with the +160 number on the Nationals in a pretty favorable spot.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline |
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Moneyline
I'm betting the Nationals moneyline on Sunday.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on the run line. Each of the first two games were tight, low-scoring contests. Sunday shouldn't be any different.
Over/Under
The Braves have gone under the total in six consecutive games, while the Nationals have gone under in four of their past five games. That sounds like a worthy under to me. The wind will be blowing in at 7 mph, so that'll limit balls reaching the seats. I like the under at 8.5 here.
