Jake Irvin has come into his own in the Washington Nationals' starting rotation. He has done so by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting free passes. On Tuesday at Camden Yards, who will be tasked with facing the Baltimore Orioles, a team that barely has any slouches in the batter’s box.
The Orioles will throw newly acquired Trevor Rogers in Tuesday's series opener. Rogers has begun to see the negative regression come his way in a Baltimore uniform. The Orioles wanted an innings-eater type and acquired an arm that may not provide such for the rest of the year.
You can find my Nationals vs Orioles prediction and pick in my betting preview for this interleague series tilt below.
Nationals vs. Orioles Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 9 -102o / -120u | +136 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 9 -102o / -120u | -162 |
Nationals vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jake Irvin (WAS) | Stat | LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-10 | W-L | 2-10 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.76/4.09 | ERA /xERA | 4.71/5.22 |
| 4.11/3.93 | FIP / xFIP | 4.50/4.62 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.56 |
| 15.3% | K-BB% | 7.5% |
| 42.4% | GB% | 47.2% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 84 |
| 105 | Location+ | 100 |
D.J. James’s Nationals vs Orioles Preview
Nationals Betting Preview: Bullpen is a Problem
Irvin has a 3.75 ERA and 4.09 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are both below average, but he ranks in the top half of the league in ground-ball rate. He also walks less than 6% of batters. While he's given up nine earned over 10 2/3 innings pitched in August, he can get back to normal in this outing if he keeps the ball on the ground.
The Nationals have hit lefties well in the last month. They own a 120 wRC+, 6.1% walk rate, and 17.5% strikeout rate, with six bats above a .315 xwOBA. James Wood seems to be hitting like the prospect who was so highly-touted, so he's a great boost to the batting order. Rogers is nothing to write home about, so the Nats should be primed for an offensive explosion.
The Nats’ bullpen has been weak in the last month. They have a 4.52 xFIP as a unit with an 18.5% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. They have three arms below a 4.00 xFIP, but this is the more unreliable portion of the team, and thus a hard reason to fade the Orioles moneyline.
Orioles Betting Preview: Hurting on the Mound
Rogers has a 4.71 ERA and 5.22 xERA. Like Irvin, he induces an above-average number of grounders, but his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are far below average. His strikeout rate is 17.4% with a walk rate of around 10%, which are awful numbers that should provide a boost to the Nats. He has also allowed seven earned in 9 1/3 innings, so the negative regression seems to be hitting at an inopportune time for Orioles fans.
The Orioles have a 125 wRC+, 9.9% walk rate, and 22.5% strikeout rate. They have eight active hitters with a .315+ xwOBA and a couple of others with fewer than 10 plate appearances against righties. Because of this, Irvin may not be reliable enough to back. Baltimore is hitting too well, even though he can keep the ball on the ground.
In relief, the Orioles have a collective xFIP of 4.16. They have a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. They have five active arms below a 4.00 xFIP. They have some crucial injuries to relievers, so this is one reason the bullpen has fallen off in the last month.
Nationals vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Irvin can bounce back, but the Orioles are too good hitting the ball. The Nationals, however, get to face the far worse pitcher in Rogers. His peripherals are awful, and the Nationals make enough contact to give him trouble.
They have a deep enough and young, talented group of hitters to put together more than four runs early. They do not hit righties as well, but since Rogers is a southpaw, there is value in the Nats to score four or more runs.
