The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Washington Nationals for the series opener of a four-game series on Monday night at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PIT and MASN.
The Pirates enter as a -218 favorite with Paul Skenes taking the mound against Washington's Brad Lord. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 7.
Find my Nationals vs Pirates prediction for Monday night below.
Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Picks
- Nationals vs Pirates picks: Under 7.5 (Play to 7)
My Nationals vs Pirates best bet is both teams to stay under the total in this Brad Lord vs. Paul Skenes matchup. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Pirates Odds, Spread, Line
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +162 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -195 |
Nationals vs Pirates Projected Pitchers
| RHP Brad Lord (WAS) | Stat | RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 1.80 / 3.29 | ERA /xERA | 3.44 / 1.45 |
| 3.79 / 5.23 | FIP / xFIP | 1.30 / 2.24 |
| 1.80 | WHIP | 0.82 |
| 0% | K-BB% | 24.3% |
| 50% | GB% | 59.6% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 100 | Location+ | 107 |
Nationals vs Pirates Pick, MLB Betting Guide
I see a lot of love in the market for the over in tonight's game, but I don't envision this matchup being a slugfest. As of Monday morning, you can grab an under 7.5 (-120) at FanDuel, and I will happily take that number.
We all know how dominant Skenes can be, and he truly is in the upper echelon when it comes to talent. Skenes finished 2024 with an xERA of 2.53 and is already on pace to finish around that number again.
His strikeout rate is elite, but what separates Skenes from the pack is his ability to limit hard contact and maintain a low walk rate. You won't get many gifts from Skenes, and that's why he's so tough to crack.
His hard-hit, barrel and groundball rates all sit at an elite level. I'm a massive fan of this young Nationals offense, but Skenes is matchup-proof.
Washington has scored over four runs per game thus far, but I don't think the bats will wake up until Skenes exits the game. Even then, it could be too late for piling runs on the scoreboard.
On the other side, the Pirates offense is off to a nightmare start in 2025. They're second-to-last in runs scored per game, and tonight's matchup against Brad Lord is no gimme, either.
Lord was effective in his only start this year, and if you look back at his minor-league numbers, they aren't too terrible either. Lord is a promising young arm for the Nats, but his minor-league numbers suggest he walks too many hitters.
Despite the elevated walk rate, Lord tends to keep the ball in the ballpark, which would help keep the total under. As we all know, PNC Park is a pitcher's paradise, and the weather in the Northeast has yet to show any signs that spring is upon us.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nationals pull off the upset late once Skenes exits the game, but I have little faith they can crack through against him. This is also more of a fade of a struggling Pirates offense, but to be safe, I like the under at 7.5.
Pick: Under 7.5 (Play to 7)
Nationals vs Pirates Betting Trends
