Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
Padres vs.
Marlins
No Runs First Inning (+108)
| Matchup | M. Clevinger (Padres) vs. P. Lopez (Marlins) |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
On Wednesday, we travel to LoanDepot Park to take an NRFI between two National League teams: the Marlins and the Padres.
The Padres will send out Mike Clevinger. Coming into today, he's a near-perfect 12-1 to the NRFI, with a 7-1 road NRFI split. When facing batters the first time through the lineup, he's held them in check, allowing only a .193 average.
Clevinger has not faced any of these Marlins hitters. Thus, this leaves the edge of unfamiliarity with him.
It should be noted JJ Bleday and Jesus Aguilar are in the midst of a slump, hitting under .200 over their past seven days:
- JJ Bleday: 5-for-27
- Jesus Aguilar: 4-for-22
To no surprise, the Marlins in the month of August are one of the worst first-inning hitting baseball teams. In 53 plate appearances, they have only managed eight hits, which is good for a .170 batting average. They also rank fairly high in a category teams would not want to rank highly in. The Marlins rank 2nd in soft contact in the month of August coming in at 27.8% of the time.
When looking at Marlins, a massive trend that cannot be ignored: They are MLB’s best NRFI team (85% in 2022). On top of that, they are currently on a 10-0 NRFI run over their past 10 games.
The Marlins will counter with Pablo Lopez. Coming into today, he is 14-9 to the NRFI. Lopez is having a down year with the NRFI, but we know the potential is there. Walks are very crucial with NRFI betting, and Lopez does not walk batters in the first inning. In 100 plate appearances, he has issued only seven walks.
Here are some of Pablo’s best matchups today:
- Josh Bell: 3-for-11
- Jake Croneworth: 1-for-4
- Brandon Drury: 0-for-3
- Trent Grisham: 1-for-6
Bell is also struggling overall at the plate recently, going 1-for-25 in his past 26 at-bats.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Padres struggle in the first inning on the road despite their hitting talent. In 2022 they are 51-11 to the NRFI; that’s good for an amazing 82%.
Like the Marlins the Padres are also on an NRFI tear, going 10-0 to the NRFI in their past 10 games.
Bet on these two teams and their respective 80% NRFI splits, along with their 10-0 NRFI streaks, to confine today. Take the NRFI between the Padres and the Marlins.
As always, six outs to glory…
