After a 1-1 day on Tuesday, I've got two more player props to target for Thursday's slate.
This includes backing an aging pitcher against a slumbering offense, as well as a power-hitter who's been smashing the ball.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Logan Gilbert under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| Phillies @ Mariners | |
| First Pitch | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I sure do like watching Logan Gilbert pitch, and he's having an unbelievable start to his season. I just don't think Gilbert gets here today.
The young right-hander managed six or more strikeouts in three of his six starts this season. But if you stretch that back to the start of last year, he's hit this number in just 12 of his 30 starts (40%, -150 implied odds to under).
Moreover, he doesn't quite enjoy pitching at home. Gilbert has cashed over 5.5 Ks in only five of his past 15 home starts (33%, -200 implied odds to under).
He's 1-1 to over 5.5 Ks in two home starts this season. But that one win was against the strikeout-prone Rays, and he only managed six strikeouts despite tossing 99 pitches.
Gilbert is still striking out a batter per inning — 9.00 K/9 on the dot — but he hasn't been overpowering. His CSW% of 24.2% ranks in the 12th percentile of MLB pitchers this season.
Gilbert will take on a Phillies team that strikes out at the 18th-highest rate against RHPs (21.8%) while posting the seventh-highest wRC+ (111). And surprisingly, the Phillies' numbers boost away from Philly, with this lineup boasting a 119 wRC+ and a 20.1 K% in road games.
Our Action Labs Projections have Gilbert at 5.4 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections are closer to 5.3. Either way, there's enough evidence here to fade Gilbert and his strikeout total.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Chris Archer over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
| Astros vs. Twins | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Chris Archer is getting up there in age, and he's struggling more and more with each passing year. He's posted a -0.2 fWAR through five starts this season, rarely making it five innings with an xERA above 5.00.
But Archer can still get guys to miss. He's above average in both strikeout rate (24.1%) and whiff rate, with his changeup taking a big jump this season in chase rate. His 9.31 K/9 is holding steady with his career averages and he's managed to get over this line in three of five starts this season — including his last two.
Archer's last two starts have been somewhat masterful. He struck out six over four two-run innings at Camden Yards, and before that struck out four over four one-run innings at The Trop.
The Astros are known for being plate discipline gurus. But this year, things are slightly different. Their strikeout rate against righties is up over 3%, jumping from having the 29th-ranked K% to the 12th. And after posting a 116 wRC+ against the right side in 2021 (first in MLB), that number is down to 103 (15th in MLB).
Plus, the projection market loves Archer today.
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 4.6 Ks (9.3% edge)
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 4.2 Ks
- Betting Pros' Player Prop Projections: 4.3 Ks
Archer can easily pick up four strikeouts in a four-inning start here today.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
