I'm targeting three more player props for Wednesday's MLB slate, including two in the Subway Series.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Cal Quantrill Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)
| Guardians @ Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
I'm going to keep fading the Red Sox.
Boston has the league's third-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest wRC+ against righties over the past month.
J.D. Martinez has worked his way back into the lineup, but the Sox are still lacking quality hitters without Rafael Devers and Trevor Story. Boston had Rob Refsnyder leading off last night and had to throw in Jaylin Davis and Yolmer Sanchez.
Cal Quantrill is not the pitcher I'm looking to back in most scenarios, and he's only cashed over 4.5 Ks in four of his 18 starts this season. But he's managed at least four strikeouts in 10 starts, and Boston's lineup woes could push him over that number.
Quantrill also faced the Sox twice last season, striking out six batters over six innings in both starts. His CSW rate approached 30% on both starts, and he didn't need 100 pitches to reach either number.
Our Action Labs projections mark Quantrill for 5.4 Ks tonight, and we get to bet this line at decent plus-money. That's good value.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+125)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Domingo German Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165)
| Yankees @ Mets | |
| First Pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Domingo German made his first start of the season against the Astros last week after rehabbing through the minor leagues. As such, he threw only 58 pitches in his first start, striking out two with a 24% CSW rate.
I still think German is on a short leash. Giving him a strikeout line of 4.5 feels too high in that scenario.
Moreover, this is a tough Mets lineup. The Mets don't hit the ball hard, but they never strike out — doing so less than 20% on the season — and rank third in contact rate this season. New York puts the ball in play.
And it's not like German was dominating the minors. He struck out just 11 batters in 20 1/3 innings, good for a 15.9% rate. Now, we expect him to mow down the Metropolitans?
I'm not buying it. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects German for just 3.9 Ks tonight, and that's enough value for me.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Mark Canha over 0.5 Hits (-145)
| Yankees @ Mets | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
One hitter that could prevent German from reaching five Ks is Mark Canha.
Canha hasn't been ripping the world apart, but he's consistently produced a hit in 60% of his games this season, including in 20 of his last 30 games. He also has a solid matchup against German today.
In 10 lifetime PAs against German, Canha has gone 6-for-9 with a double and a homer. He's also struck out just once, whiffed just 15% of the time, and recorded a 95.9 MPH average exit velocity on his batted balls.
Canha's Statcast statistics have produced a .495 xBA in his ABs against German. He'll have at least two ABs against German today, and I expect him to record a base knock in at least one of them.
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits
