Our Action Network's MLB Player Props team is now on a 17-4 run over the past few weeks. After a poor-variance month of April, the breaks are falling our way again.
Here are two more pitchers worth betting in the strikeout market Wednesday.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Orioles @ Cardinals | |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I have now successfully faded Carlos Rodon three straight times in this column, and I'm ready to do it again.
When I see Rodon's name pop up on the Action Network App, the first thing I see is this:
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He's coming off of two incredibly strong starts. He threw six shutout innings against the Dodgers and then six more shutout innings against the Pirates. Moreover, he struck out eight in each contest.
But over the past 30 days and against southpaws, Pittsburgh has the highest strikeout rate in MLB, while the Dodgers have the 13th-highest. Both also rank in the back half of the league in wRC+ against that side.
Rodon has shown vulnerability to righty-heavy lineups that mash left-handed pitching — the Cardinals (8 ER over 3 2/3 innings) and the Reds (3 ER and 7 H over 5 1/3 innings) come to mind.
The Braves have seven righties in the lineup, and with the exception of Marcell Ozuna and Orlando Arcia, they all have standard platoon splits with massive success against left-handed pitching.
Here's how those five have performed against LHPs this season:
- Ronald Acuña Jr.: 193 wRC+
- Dansby Swanson: 155 wRC+
- Austin Riley: 175 wRC+
- Travis d'Arnaud: 167 wRC+
- Adam Duvall: 151 wRC+
Put it all together, and the Braves have posted the third-highest wRC+ against southpaws in MLB this year (126). And while they've been strikeout prone this season, they combine the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) against the left side with the second-highest wRC+ (159) over the past month.
Our Action Labs Payer Props Tool projects Rodon for only 6.9 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him closer to 6.6.
I absolutely love this under, and I'm considering the Braves ML as well.
Pick: Under 7.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Triston McKenzie Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
| Guardians @ Twins | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I was honestly hoping we'd see a 4.5 pop across the market for Triston McKenzie. But considering we're playing his 5.5 at solid plus-money odds, I think this is a good value play to add to your Wednesday card.
McKenzie has cashed this number in three of his past four starts and in 7 of his 12 this season. That 58% hit rate should imply -140 odds to the over.
While Minnesota has been crushing right-handed pitching, the Twins also have posted the ninth-highest strikeout rate against that side over the past 30 days (23.7%).
McKenzie failed to cash over 5.5 against Minnesota in his last start, but he struck out 8 Twins over three starts last season. And in those three starts, he managed just 72, 83 and 72 pitches, respectively.
While McKenzie isn't the most prolific strikeout pitcher, he eats up innings. He's pitched a whopping 70 innings over just 11 starts this season, meaning he manages about 6 1/3 per start on average. That places him among the league's better starters in that category.
Considering our Action Network Player Props Tool projects McKenzie for 6.4 strikeouts today, it's very much worth playing the over in this spot. As long as he eats up the expected innings and the Twins continue to be strike out, there's a good chance McKenzie punches out six today.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
