After capping the strikeout prop market using our Action Labs projections, I've found two player props worth betting today. I expect plenty of strikeouts in the Cleveland vs. Detroit game today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Drew Hutchison Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-108)
| Guardians @ Tigers | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Drew Hutchison moved into the Detroit rotation two months ago and has produced mixed results since. A 4.28 ERA is fine, but a 4.95 xFIP indicates some negative regression. His BABIP is low (.277), and he's still walking far too many batters (3.38 BB/9).
However, this line is a tad low.
Hutchison has struck out at least three batters in five straight starts. His CSW rate has jumped up to 25% during the stretch, and the leash has been fairly long considering he's thrown close to 90 pitches in each start.
Hutchison also hit this line in his last start against Cleveland, picking up three strikeouts over five innings and 86 pitches. He can do it again.
Plus, this is a good projection play. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Hutchison for 3.7 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 2.9.
We're paying low juice on a very low line for a hurler who should reach five innings and 90 pitches. I'll take that.
Pick: Over 2.5 Ks (-108)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
| Guardians @ Tigers | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I've always been bullish on Aaron Civale. He ranks above the 95th percentile in both fastball spin rate and curveball spin rate, and he's strung together stretches of elite play before some blunders return.
It's been a blunderous season. His ERA is well over 6.00, and the Guardians have lost four straight with Civale on the mound.
But Civale has also been wicked unlucky. His BABIP sits very high (.350) and his strand rate stands very low (59.1%). He alsopairs his ERA with a 4.74 xERA and a 4.11 xFIP.
Civale is also on pace to post a career-high in K/9 with 8.67. His strikeout rate has bounced back in a big way after a lackluster 2021, and he's struck out six in three of his last five starts.
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It's always worth fading the Tigers, too. Detroit is striking out at the fourth-highest rate against right-handed pitchers over the last month (26.6%) with the lowest wRC+ (55). It has also allowed six of the last eight starters it's faced to go over their listed strikeout total.
Civale took on the Tigers three times last season and struck out six in all three.
Given that our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Civale for 4.8 strikeouts and we're getting good plus-money, I'll take him to strike out six Tigers one more time.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+120)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
