We went just 1-1 overall on Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate, but managed to finish at even money for the card.
Now, we’re targeting two plus-money props on the Wednesday schedule to try and turn a slight profit in case of another split.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Nestor Cortés — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
| Rays @ Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
It's tough to fade Nestor Cortés these days. He's one of the top-five betting favorites for AL Cy Young, working with a 1.96 ERA and 2.39 xERA through 64 1/3 innings and 11 stellar starts.
By the way, the Yankees are 8-3 in those outings.
Cortés is an intriguing left-hander. He's a fly-ball pitcher who almost exclusively relies on a four-seam and cutter combination. The pitches barely touch 90 miles per hour, but he's recorded a minus-15 Run Value combined between them.
Cortés will mix in a slider, but it doesn't move much and has gotten relatively shelled this season.
His stuff isn't spectacular, and he ranks in just the 28th percentile of pitchers in whiff rate this season. So, how is Cortés striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings?
Mostly, Cortés gets guys to chase on his cutter. The development of that pitch has totally changed his game and led him to become one of the best pitchers.
However, I think there's value in fading him here, since I don't think Tampa Bay will be vulnerable to his fastball tricks.
On the season and against southpaws, the Rays are striking out at the third-lowest rate in baseball (17.9%) overall. Over the last 30 days against lefties, they're striking out even less (17.4%) as well. And the Rays are league-average in Weighted Cutter Runs Created (-0.5) this season.
While Tampa has a reputation for being strikeout-prone, that hasn't been the case against lefties this season. Cortés faced the Rays once already, and he only mustered five strikeouts despite throwing 109 pitches over eight innings. His swinging-strike rate was less than 10% in that start.
It's going to be tight, as our Action Labs Player Props tool has Cortés projected for 5.2 strikeouts, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 5.5 in this spot. However, given we're getting solid plus money on the under, I'll take a shot there against this disciplined Tampa Bay lineup.
Pick: Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Erick Fedde — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Braves @ Nationals | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I've never been an Erick Fedde believer. He's a sinkerballer who can't get the pitch to miss bats. His strikeout rate is way down this season and he's simultaneously allowing a 50% hard-hit rate on his most-used pitch.
Fedde has reworked his pitch mix just a bit, and it has led to slightly improved results. Throwing more secondary pitches and less of the sinker has helped bring his avg. exit velocity down a couple of ticks.
However, Fedde still ranks among the bottom 10% of pitchers in whiff rate, chase rate, and swinging-strike rate. His ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP all sit within 4.37 and 4.87, so there's nothing to get excited about with him.
While this Braves lineup has been strikeout happy, they've crushed Fedde in the past. Over 93 lifetime PAs against current Atlanta hitters, Feddee has allowed a .400 average with a .750 slugging and a .508 wOBA. He's managed a silly 12:11 K/BB ratio during those starts with a measly 16.9% whiff rate.
Plus, Fedde has stayed under this number in seven of his last 10 starts.
This should be a close one as well, with our Action Labs Player Props tool projecting Fedde for 4.6 Ks and FanGraphs SaberSim projections marking him for 4.4. But given the plus-money odds, I'll happily bet him to stay under here.
Additionally, if you're looking to play some Atlanta hitters on the props market, I'd target Adam Duvall (+110) or Marcell Ozuna (-110) to go over their bases totals. Both have slugged over 1.000 against Fedde in their career and the two are a combined 13 for 24 against the right-handed pitcher.
Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Other Leans: Adam Duvall — Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) | Marcell Ozuna — Over 1.5 TBs (-110)
