OMG!
The Mets season has been as big a roller coaster as we’ve seen in a while, starting with an awful losing streak and a clear road toward being surefire sellers to the Grimace behemoths we saw in June and July.
They’ve cooled off in recent weeks and now face an absolute gauntlet West Coast trip with four games against the wild card leading Padres and Diamondbacks. The Mets are four games behind each team, so the potential impact of these series cannot be overstated. A sweep in either direction could be a season-ender for the opposing team.
New York also heads to California 1.5 games behind the Braves for the third and final wild card spot, marginally ahead of the Giants (3.5), Cardinals (5), Reds (5.5) and Cubs (5.5).
So, what are the odds they make it to October? And how good are their chances to possibly win the whole thing?
FanDuel has them at +240 to make the postseason and -335 to miss out. For comparisons sake, the Braves are -335 and +235 to watch the playoffs at home.
FanGraphs, for what it's worth, gives the Mets a 25.4% chance of making the playoffs entering play on Thursday, before the Mets start the aforementioned four-game series against the NL Wild Card-leading Padres.
Those odds imply a line of +294 to make the playoffs and -294 to miss the playoffs. So, there's might be value on the Mets to miss, but you'll have to eat some juice to get there.
On the flip side, the Braves host a 75.1% chance of making the playoffs. That implies odds of -300 to make the playoffs, +300 to miss. Similarly, there might be value on the Braves to make the playoffs, but the odds are short enough — and the EV small enough — to skip the pick altogether.
As for the Mets winning the Fall Classic? Well, those odds aren’t great.
The Mets are +9000 to win it all, which is actually longer than it was when they were a laughingstock in early June when those odds sat at +8000. Meanwhile, for what it’s worth, they opened at+5000.
Their +9000 odds imply a probability of 1.1% of winning the World Series. FanGraphs gives the Mets the same converted odds — a 1.1% chance.
New York is +3800 to win the NL pennant if they sneak into the playoffs.
You can pretty much forget about them winning the NL East though. The Mets are massive underdogs to win it for the first time since 2015 at +8500. That’s well behind the Phillies (-1900) and Braves (+1200).
So, the Mets’ hopes of a most unlikely playoff berth rests solely on making it as a wild card team. And those chances might hinge on the success or failure of their upcoming series against the Padres and Diamondbacks.
