White Sox vs. Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 8 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -155 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-150 | 8 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +135 |
The Astros' championship celebration was cut short on Opening Day as the White Sox walked into Minute Maid Park and took down the defending champions by the score of 3-2.
Dylan Cease starred to the tune of 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball, striking out 10. It was the Astros bullpen that struggled, as Rafael Montero blew the save and Ryan Pressly gave up two runs in the top of the 9th.
Houston looks to rebound behind young phenom Cristian Javier, while Chicago hands the ball to veteran Lance Lynn.
Here's a preview and betting pick for the second game of White Sox vs. Astros.
Chicago White Sox
Lance Lynn really struggled to find his footing to begin the season in 2022, battling a knee injury that sidelined him until mid-June. He made seven starts before the All-Star break but was shelled, giving up a 7.50 ERA.
But the grizzly right-hander settled into his own and cruised in the back-half of the year. In 14 starts, he had a 2.52 ERA and a K/9 rate over 9.
Lynn is one of the best pitchers in baseball when it comes to control. His walk rate is under 4% — top two percent in MLB — and his xERA (3.62) and xFIP (3.44) suggest he underperformed in 2022.
His LOB% was also 68.4, considerably down from his career average of 75.5. Positive regression should come with a new season underway.
Lynn doesn't overpower hitters and ranks around league average in xBA, xSLG and hard-hit rate. He gave up 16 home runs in the final 12 games of the year.
While his velocity has dipped slightly year to year — the knee injury could have been a driving factor — Lynn began introducing more off-speed in his primarily hard-stuff approach.
In 2021, Lynn threw off-speed 7.6% of all pitches. The rest were four-seamers, cutters and sinkers. That changed as 2022 progressed and by year's end, Lynn added a slider and threw that, the curveball and changeup 17.4% of the time.
While he remains a fastball-heavy righty, adding to his arsenal has led to a jump in whiffs.
There's still a lot of question marks when it comes to the White Sox bullpen with Liam Hendriks injured. Reynaldo Lopez is the presumed closer, but he already gave up a run in his first outing on Thursday.
The Chicago offense took a hit with Jose Abreu heading to Houston but hopes to receive a full season from phenom Luis Robert Jr. He played 98 games last season — 12 home runs and a .284 average — but health is his biggest issue.
The White Sox also added Andrew Benintendi and retained Elvis Andrus in free agency and have brought up rookie Oscar Colas, who enters with high expectations.
Houston Astros
If you've read any of my work previewing the baseball season, there are few players that I am higher on than Cristian Javier.
This is an AL Cy Young-caliber pitcher and one who could take the final step forward into superstardom this season. The 26-year-old was arguably Houston's best arm in the playoffs, throwing 12 2/3 of one-run ball, giving up two hits and striking out 16.
That built off an impressive second half from Javier, where he finished with a 1.79 ERA across 78 1/3 innings. Last season, he finished inside the top five percentile of all pitchers in xBA and xSLG and his strikeout rate jumped to a career-best 33%.
The issue with Javier has been a high walk rate — near double digits — and pitching deep into ball games. But he's bumped his innings total by 50 each season since his debut in 2020, most recently topping out at 148 2/3.
Taking that next step and throwing 6-7 innings an outing is all Javier needs to cement himself in Cy Young conversations.
Not much has changed with the Houston offense from an offseason perspective. Abreu was signed in the offseason to replace Yuli Gurriel while Jose Altuve will miss the start of the season.
This remains one of the best offenses in baseball, headlined by Yordan Alvarez. He hit a home run in Thursday night's 3-2 loss to Chicago, but it's a positive sign after the AL MVP candidate played just two spring training games while dealing with a hand injury.
White Sox vs. Astros Betting Pick
As is tradition early into MLB seasons, starting pitchers are capped in that 80-90 pitch range. That puts a lot more stress on bullpens, where depth can sometimes be an issue.
Both teams already exhausted their best arms on Opening Day, so in this matchup of two pitchers I am extremely high on, I'm backing the first five under instead.
I can't hype Javier up enough. Everything is there for the 26-year-old to dominate and take reigns as the best arm in Houston. His advanced metrics are among the most impressive in baseball.
As for Lynn, I expect him to return to his former self that we saw in the second half of 2022. His ability to still make changes to his arsenal at 35 and his excellent command is a huge plus.
Both offenses struggled out of the gate to open the season and I expect the same to happen on Friday night. There are some flaws within each team that should fix themselves as the season progresses, but I'll look to fade them when I can in March/April.
Rather than trusting the bullpens, the first five under is the smarter approach. Javier may only throw five innings on Friday given its his first start of the season, but I expect him to roll as he goes head to head with the veteran Lynn.
Pick: First Five Under 4 |
