Editor's Note: Monday's White Sox-Guardians game has been postponed because of inclement weather.
White Sox vs. Guardians Odds
| White Sox Odds | -105 |
| Guardians Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Chicago White Sox travel to Cleveland to take on the Guardians in the first matchup of this four-game AL Central set.
Both teams enter this series following a loss, and they will both look to bounce back against a division opponent.
Will the Guardians protect home field, or can the White Sox pull off the road upset?
Time to Fade the White Sox?
The White Sox enter this game following their 2-1 series win against the Tampa Bay Rays. I believe this is a good time to sell high on the White Sox, as their metrics suggest regression is imminent.
Left-hander Dallas Keuchel is projected to get the start on the mound for Chicago and should be a good fade candidate in this matchup. In his one start this season, Keuchel allowed three earned runs on six hits through five innings pitched against the Seattle Mariners.
In that start, Keuchel produced a .280 xwOBA, .275 xBA and .379 xSLG. Last season, Keuchel had a tough campaign, but was even worse on the road, as he registered a 5.75 ERA and 1.660 WHIP when playing away from home.
In three starts against Cleveland last year, Keuchel lost all three games and posted a terrible 6.61 ERA and 1.163 WHIP. Even if Keuchel does not give up enough runs for the game to be a blowout, there should not be much trust in the White Sox's bullpen.
So far this season, Chicago's relief pitching ranks just 20th in the league in BA, 23rd in OBP and 22nd in SLG. The White Sox may not get much run protection either, as they are slated to go against right-handed pitcher Shane Bieber.
In 124 career plate appearances against Bieber, this current White Sox roster possesses a mere .221 xBA, .375 xSLG and .262 xwOBA. Against right-handers so far this season, Chicago ranks just 24th in the league in BA, 30th in OBP, 24th in SLG and 28th in OPS.
Guardians to Get Elite Pitching
The Cleveland Guardians enter this series after getting swept by the San Francisco Giants. While the White Sox are in a good spot to sell high, the Guardians are in a good spot to buy low, as their metrics suggest positive regression could loom in this series.
As I mentioned in the previous section, Bieber is projected to get the start in this opening game. Through his two starts this season, Bieber boasts a 2.70 ERA, .700 WHIP and .199 xBA.
Bieber will look to continue his strong play from last season, as he posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 2021. In his four starts against the White Sox last year, Bieber went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.760 WHIP.
After Bieber, Cleveland's bullpen should be reliable, as the relief staff has gotten off to a hot start. So far this season, Cleveland's relief pitching ranks ninth in the league in BA and 11th in OBP.
Additionally, Cleveland's pitching staff should get some solid run support in this matchup, as it's slated to go against Keuchel. In 79 career plate appearances against Keuchel, this current Guardians roster boasts a .284 xBA, .460 xSLG and .343 xwOBA.
When facing left-handers this season, Cleveland currently ranks 12th in BA, first in OBP and 12th in OPS.
White Sox-Guardians Pick
The public will most likely be all over the White Sox, as they took a series against a strong Rays team while the Guardians just got swept.
That makes me like the Guardians play even more.
Oddsmakers listed the Guardians as a favorite for a reason — they have the advantage in pretty much all of the key metrics and have the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd.
Behind the efforts of Bieber, the Guardians should be able to start this series off on a high note.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-115) | Play up to (-130)
