White Sox vs. Guardians Odds
| White Sox Odds | -135 |
| Guardians Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the third and final game of this AL Central intradivisional series as the Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox in Thursday's matinee.
This article was published before Wednesday's doubleheader was completed, so all figures and numbers below are prior to Wednesday's slate.
That said, will the White Sox get the job done as road favorites or can the Guardians pull off the home upset? Let's take a look at the matchup.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox enter this matchup as the favorites, a spot in which they're 6-1 this season. I think this trend continues, especially with right-hander Dylan Cease as the projected starting pitcher.
Through two starts, Cease is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, .938 WHIP and 16 strikeouts through 10 2/3 innings. Cease's metrics suggest we shouldn't see regression anytime soon as he boasts a .244 xwOBA, .185 xBA, and .235 xSLG.
Cease should also get good run support, as the White Sox are slated to go against right-hander Zach Plesac. In 119 career plate appearances against Plesac, this White Sox roster boasts a .289 xBA, .495 xSLG and .344 xwOBA.
Cleveland Guardians
As I mentioned in the previous section, right-hander Plesac is the projected starting pitcher for the Guardians. Through two starts, Plesac is 0-1 with a 1.64 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and seven strikeouts through eleven innings pitched.
While Plesac's surface-level numbers are very good, his metrics suggest that regression is imminent. This season, Plesac possesses a .396 xwOBA, .309 xBA and .630 xSLG. He got shelled last season when facing the White Sox. Through four starts against Chicago, Plesac had a 7.56 ERA and 1.680 WHIP.
Even if Plesac gets chased early, Cleveland's bullpen will most likely also struggle, as the Guardians' relief pitchers have gotten off to a rough start this year. Currently, Cleveland's relief pitching ranks just 22nd in the league in ERA, 19th in BA, 26th in SLG, and 23rd in wOBA.
I don't expect this pitching staff to get much run support either against Cease. In 39 career plate appearances against his, this current Cleveland roster possesses a .211 xBA, .325 xSLG and .263 xwOBA.
As a home underdog this season, the Guardians have an 0-3 record.
White Sox-Guardians Pick
We are getting a good amount of value in the White Sox moneyline due to the surface-level numbers of Plesac, but as I stated, we should expect to see big regression from him very soon.
Especially following the results of Wednesday's doubleheader, the majority of the public will likely be on the home underdog, which makes me like the White Sox even more.
Stretching back to last year, Chicago has won five of its last six games when Cease gets the nod and I think it extends that success into this matchup.
Pick: Chicago ML (-135 | Play to -145)
