White Sox vs. Red Sox Odds
| White Sox Odds | +144 |
| Red Sox Odds | -172 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-102 / -120) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The highly anticipated Sox series is set to kick off with a surprisingly good pitching matchup.
Nathan Eovaldi will go for the Red Sox, and he put together a solid first month of the season as he enters with a 2.51 ERA. Opposing him for Chicago will be Vince Velasquez.
Velasquez was a peculiar signing for the White Sox this offseason after we'd seen the high hopes for him from his days in Philly fade. However, his results thus far are making him look like a bargain. Yes, he has a 4.58 ERA, but that's inflated due to one bad start against Minnesota.
He'll enter this start off of his best performance in recent memory, as he carved up the Angels for six shutout innings. So, can Velasquez build off his momentum and combine with Eovaldi to keep the bats quiet in this matchup? Let's dive in to find out.
White Sox Scuffles to Continue
Chicago's lineup has certainly not reached its preseason potential to this point.
It'll enter this game 27th in runs scored and 24th in team batting average. When you look at the talent littered throughout this lineup, that's almost hard to believe.
While the White Sox's offense has struggled, they've still managed to win ball games of late. They'll enter as winners of four of their last five. However, they didn't put up more than five runs in any of those games. In fact, they lost in the one game they put up five runs.
Eovaldi is the type of pitcher that Chicago does not want to face. He's going to attack hitters with his hard fastball. Fastballs have given the White Sox trouble this season, as they have just four players on the roster with positive run values, and only two of them —Tim Anderson and Adam Engel — start consistently.
Although, they won't only have to worry about velocity because Eovaldi's curveball has also been almost unhittable thus far this season. He has a .045 batting average on his curveball with a whiff rate of nearly 33%.
The White Sox's best bet will be to hunt fastballs and hope for a mistake. But mistakes are rare with Eovaldi, and perhaps scoring opportunities will be as well.
Boston's Bats to be Held in Check
It seems as if the color of the sock doesn't change the offense struggles, as Boston has been even worst than Chicago. It'll enter this game with a -17.5 offensive runs above average. That's only better than Cincinnati and Detroit.
The Red Sox's issue has been making solid contact as a whole. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Christian Vazquez are the only three with hard-hit rates above 45%.
While that does put them in the upper echelon of hard-hit rates, there are others like Kike Hernandez and J.D. Martinez who haven't produced to their standard thus far.
Now, they're going to face a somewhat improved version of Velasquez. In the past, Velasquez had been very fastball heavy, throwing that pitch nearly 50% of the time. However, he's dialed it back this season and mixed in his sinker much more often.
Yes, Velasquez's underlying metrics are concerning as he's allowed a great deal of solid contact, but that's not what we saw against the Angels. Velasquez had a 34% whiff rate and a 37% CSW. That was against an Angels lineup that was at full strength.
Our angle should be in good shape if we can get an outing that's even half as good.
White Sox-Red Sox Pick
Both of these clubs have struggled to put up runs recently, and the arms they will face in this matchup don't cater to changing that trend.
I expect Eovaldi to have an excellent outing, as the White Sox have struggled with velocity this season. I'm also banking on Velasquez avoiding the few hot bats in Boston's lineup and giving us five quality innings.
For me, that's a recipe for the under, which has been common for the Red Sox, who are only 8-17-1 to the over.
Pick: Under 8.5
