White Sox vs. Rockies Odds
| White Sox Odds | -140 |
| Rockies Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 11 |
| Time | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Winners of three consecutive games, the Chicago White Sox look to finish off a two-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday at Coors Field.
After holding on for a 2-1 win on Tuesday, the White Sox hand the ball to the struggling Lucas Giolito. The Rockies will counter with Antonio Senzatela, who has had his fair share of pitching woes as well.
So, can either offense heat up against struggling pitchers or will it be another rubber match at Coors Field?
Chicago White Sox
After three dominant years atop the White Sox rotation, Giolito has been Jekyll & Hyde this season.
The right-handed pitcher’s ERA has ballooned up from 3.53 to 5.12 in 2022. His first start of the second half was a short one, giving up six runs over three innings to the Guardians.
There are plenty of alarming peripherals for Giolito. While his BABIP is a bit unsustainable at .350, the 28-year-old is getting hit hard and barreled often. He ranks in the bottom 30 percent in both categories, as well as xSLG and xwOBA.
His HR/9 is a career-worst 1.68 and now heads into Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. And it's not particularly close.
Giolito's strikeout numbers have also dipped and his walk rate has slowly inched back toward his career average. His velocity is down a touch and he's relying on his changeup a lot more — throwing his slider less — which has been to no avail.
Meanwhile, the Chicago bullpen is about league average. It ranks 18th in ERA and 21st in BB/9 overall. While Kendall Graveman has provided stability at the back end, Liam Hendriks (3.48 ERA), Jose Ruiz (4.15 ERA) and Joe Kelly (6.41) have lagged behind.
Colorado Rockies
It seemed like Senzatela had turned a corner the past two seasons, but this one has been a year to forget for the right-hander.
The 27-year-old has a 4.99 ERA and his expected indicators are a bit inconsistent. While his xFIP is 4.29, his xERA ballooned all the way up at 5.80 this season.
While Senzatela doesn't get barreled often — he's in the top 25 percent of all pitchers — opponents have a .323 xBA and a .481 xSLG against him. His strikeout numbers have declined all the way to 12.7% as well.
What's most interesting about Senzatela's first half is his home-road splits. Despite pitching at Coors Field — a notorious hitter-friendly park — Senzatela is much better there than on the road.
Senzatela has a 6.57 road ERA compared to a 4.02 home ERA, though his WHIP is the same. I would expect struggles to eventually catch up to him at Coors, though, as he pitches to contact and has been hit hard all season long. The numbers just haven't followed.
And once Senzatela is out, the Rockies bullpen is as equally disastrous. It has the third-worst bullpen ERA and ranks fourth in xFIP; strikeout numbers are minimal and control can often be an issue.
Especially at Coors Field, balls should fly for Senzatela and the relief corp.
White Sox-Rockies Pick
I expect the ball to be going all over Coors Field just a day after the offenses combined for a grand total of three runs.
Giolito and Senzatela have struggled the entire season and advanced metrics don't back any sudden positive regression for either pitcher. So, each offense shouldn't have a problem forcing an early exit for the two starters.
Tack on the fact that neither bullpen is reliable — in fact, the Rockies are downright abysmal — and I think this is the perfect recipe for a high-scoring game.
Expect no shortage of offense at the most hitter-friendly park in the game.
Pick: Total Over 11 (-120)
