White Sox vs. Tigers Odds
| White Sox Odds | -165 |
| Tigers Odds | +145 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
The final week of the 2021 MLB regular season will begin Monday with just a five-game slate, with four of them lacking any playoff implications. But with only a small amount of baseball left to gamble on this season, we must take advantage of every opportunity.
Keuchel Looking to Find Something for White Sox
The AL Central champions will have Dallas Keuchel (LHP) on the mound Monday. The former Cy Young Award winner has seen his prediction steeply decline this season, posting a 5.18 ERA, the worst mark since his rookie season in 2012.
Keuchel’s ERA is high, and his 6.00 xERA is even higher. Teams have a .296 xBA and .365 xwOBA against him this season, both rank in the bottom 5% in the league. His strikeout stuff is basically non-existent at this point, holding just a 5.30 K/9 rate.
The White Sox lineup is absolutely loaded, ranking fifth in wOBA and wRC+. They have the fifth highest betting average and are sixth in walk rate.
From top to bottom, Chicago’s lineup is filled with guys who can do damage. None have been hotter than Luis Robert, who is batting .366 with a 1.032 OPS over the last month.
Tigers' Manning Also Can't Miss Bats
Detroit has a pitching staff full of young arms, including their No. 3 prospect Matt Manning (RHP). Manning made his MLB debut on June 17 and has since gone 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA in 16 starts in his young career.
Similar to Keuchel, Manning has really struggled to miss bats. He ranks in the bottom 2% in the league in strikeout rate, averaging less than three punch outs per start. Opponents have a .285 xBA against Manning, the bottom 5% of the league.
Detroit’s offense ranks just 24th in wOBA and 19 in wRC+ on the season but they have been better recently. The Tigers sit 18th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ over the last month.
The Tigers don’t have any real superstars in their lineup, and have just four regulars with a RC+ over 100. Jeimer Candelario has been their best player down the stretch, and has a 1.005 OPS with four home runs in the last two weeks.
White Sox-Tigers Pick
Both of these starting pitchers have an ERA north of 5.00 and rank in the bottom 5% of the league in xBA and bottom 10% in xwOBA. Neither have been able to generate swings and misses this year.
In his last seven starts, Keuchel has a 7.92 ERA. His most recent outing came against Detroit and he allowed a season high 11 hits in five innings.
Detroit has been much better against left-handers all year, ranking 13th in wRC+ against south paws. They should jump on Keuchel in this one, and the White Sox are able to score against anybody.
I want to attack the total here, and think both teams will be able to score. However, over the last month Chicago’s bullpen ranks fourth in ERA and Detroit’s is sixth.
Instead of dealing with the bullpens, I will back over 5 in the First Five innings at -115 or better.
Pick: Over 5 – First Five Innings (-115)
