White Sox vs. Yankees Odds
| White Sox Odds | +155 |
| Yankees Odds | -190 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 3:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Due to a Friday postponement, the White Sox and Yankees treat us to a Sunday doubleheader. They will suit up for the first game at 3:05 p.m. ET, then play at 7:08 p.m. ET in the Sunday Night Baseball game.
It has been a rough go for the White Sox so far, who sit at 19-20 and four games behind Twins for the AL Central lead.
In contrast, the Yankees are having their best start to a season in recent memory. They're 29-10 overall, boasting a +74 run differential that only trails the Dodgers. New York has also built an 11.5-game lead over Boston in the AL East standings.
The White Sox will need to take both games to salvage this series. Chicago will be catching decent plus-money odds, but do they have the horses to ride with the red-hot Yankees?
Let's dive into both games of this doubleheader and look for some betting value.
Chicago White Sox
The biggest problem for White Sox hitters has been getting underneath the ball.
Chicago's 10.2-degrees avg. launch angle is fifth worst in MLB, placing it among teams like Florida and Colorado. The White Sox are making solid contact, though, as their 43% hard-hit rate is top five in baseball. However, they can’t get the ball in the air and have the fourth-fewest doubles (53) in the league as a result.
The expected stats say the bats will come around, though. Chicago pairs a .287 wOBA (fourth worst) with a .330 xwOBA (league-average) this season.
However, when you can't drive the ball in the air, what do you expect to happen?
Tim Anderson (.346 BA) and Luis Robert (137 OPS+) are carrying the team. Outside of that, only one Chicago hitter — Andrew Vaughn — has an OPS+ above 100 among its top-13 hitters. Plus, I think Anderson might start to regress with his .347 BABIP.
It's tough to project the White Sox moving forward. If they hit the ball in the air, the offense will come around. I'm still pretty high on the bullpen, although their metrics have been league-average at best (15th in MLB with a 3.82 reliever xFIP) thus far.
Dylan Cease is an early Cy Young candidate, but the White Sox have a couple of replacement guys on the mound for this doubleheader.
Game 1 Starter: Johnny Cueto (RHP)
We all know Cueto from his unique delivery.
.@JohnnyCueto is back and so are his windups. pic.twitter.com/xmQKUVrCAc
— MLB (@MLB) May 17, 2022
Cueto actually put up a 1.5-win season last year despite having an ERA north of 4.50 overall. He has only made one start this season, but it was a beauty.
Cueto tossed six shutout innings against the Royals, allowing only two hits. He struck out seven Kansas City batters in a very disciplined lineup, while walking only two in the outing. He's looking in good form in his 15th season.
Expect a heavy dose of sliders and I wouldn't project him to continue to strike out as many batters as he did in his Southside debut. However, his unique delivery has kept hitters off balance and it's worth paying attention to going forward.
Bottom line, the White Sox need the reinforcements.
Game 2 Starter: Michael Kopech (RHP)
Kopech has been gross through seven starts. He's tossed 35 innings with a 1.54 ERA, although the White Sox are only 3-4 in his outings.
Yet, this isn’t sustainable. Kopech has a .186 BABIP and walking more than 4.30 batters per nine innings. He pairs that low ERA with a 4.61 xFIP, and his 89.2mph avg. exit velocity ranks in just the 41st percentile among qualified pitchers.
Kopech is your typical right-handed, four-seam fastball pitcher. He’s got some heat on it, regularly touching the high 90 on the radar gun. He also ranks in the 96th percentile in fastball spin rate, so it has some play.
Kopech has posted a -7 Run Value on his slider, holding hitters to just a .130 average and a .223 wOBA with a stirkeout rate north of 25 percent.
Considering he's coming off Tommy John surgery, this is a pretty encouraging start. However, his velocity is down and the expected stats paint an unpromising picture. Be cautious betting on or against Kopech moving forward, friends.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
New York Yankees
The Yankees just hit the ball so hard.
As a true three-outcome team, New York can often be streaky. Right now, the Yankees' 22.1% strikeout rate is in the top half of the league and the offense is thriving because of it.
New York leads the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, and none of the stats are particularly close. As a result, its expected stats are off the wall, but it leads the league in wRC+ (122) as well.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Aaron Judge is having a career year in his contract year. Only two players in MLB have a higher wRC+ or OPS than him so far, and both — Tyler Ward and Mike Trout — play for the Angels.
However, don’t sleep on Giancarlo Stanton or Anthony Rizzo. Stanton has 11 home runs, but I've been particularly impressed with Rizzo. His 151 wRC+ would be a career-high if he stretches it out over a full season.
Game 1 Starter: Jameson Taillon (RHP)
I'm never sure what to expect from Taillon.
His fastball has some stuff, but his secondary pitches regularly get shelled. He posted a -6 Run Value on the four-seam in 2021, and a -4 Run Value on the slider. Yet, he paired that with a +7 Run Value on the curveball and a +4 on the changeup.
His control has been insane. Taillon is walking just one batter per nine innings. That's probably unsustainable, as his career average is 2.30 and projections have him in that range. Yet, it's encouraging and has kept his xFIP below 4.00 this season.
However, the Yankees just need starters that give the team a chance to win. Considering New York is hammering the ball, the Yankees are 6-1 in his seven starts this season.
Can't complain with that.
Game 2 Starter: Luis Severino (RHP)
Severino has returned and he's mostly back to his old self.
His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up, but he has still kept his xFIP on the south side of 4.00, plus he's given the Yankees quality innings (34 2/3) so far.
His average exit velocity is low (86.2mph), which is an encouraging sign. If Severino is aging and injuries are taking a toll, he can adjust from a power-strikeout pitcher to a weak contact hurler and still be effective.
However, Severino's batted ball statistics have always been good. So, perhaps he's just leaning on that.
Like Taillon, it's a little hard to project Severino going forward, but the Yankees are 7-0 in his starts. That said, he will always give his team a chance to win.
White Sox-Yankees Pick
The Yankees are an incredibly public team. At the time of this writing, more than 90% of the tickets are on New York for both games.
Yet, that’s probably fair. Even ignoring this season's results, the Yankees have won four of the last five meetings with the White Sox.
That said, I'm not all that interested in either side in this matchup. I would lean toward Chicago due to the plus-money odds, but it's just not tantalizing enough.
However, I would definitely look to back the total staying under nine runs in both contests. I think all four starting pitchers have some advantages against their foes, and I'm always looking toward an under with a total this high in a run-impoverished environment.
It's also nice that they both feature immensely talented bullpens. The White Sox have underperformed so far, but the Yankees are top five in reliever FIP (2.98) and xFIP (3.42) this season. So, it’ll be hard to tack on late runs in these games.
If you can get under 9 in either game at -120 or better, I'd look that way.
Picks: Total Under 9 Runs in Game 1 and Game 2 (-120 or better)
