White Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Chicago White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 +114 | 8 -115o / -105u | +235 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 8 -115o / -105u | -290 |
Brad Keller — who has recently moved into the starting rotation in place of Michael Soroka — will throw for the White Sox on Saturday, while Luis Gil will get the start for the Yankees.
Both starters have fared well in the first month and a half of the season, and even though the Yankees have solid numbers against righties, their lineup is top-heavy.
Let's get to our White Sox vs. Yankees pick.
Chicago White Sox
Keller has always done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. His ERA in relief is under 3.00, with an xERA of 3.23, while his Average Exit Velocity is 89.3 MPH. Keller rarely strikes hitters out and he can sometimes struggle with command. The White Sox will probably hope to get at least four innings out of him on Saturday.
Chicago has just five batters with a .320+ xwOBA. Zach Remillard only has five plate appearances, so there is not much to take away from his numbers. Bryan Ramos was a glimmer of hope for White Sox fans, but he joins Luis Robert Jr. on the Injured List. Needless to say, Gil should handle the White Sox lineup easily.
The White Sox own a relief xFIP of 4.43 and a walk rate over 10% in the last month. They do have a couple arms under the 4.00 mark — Tanner Banks and John Brebbia — while Jordan Leasure and Michael Kopech have shown flashes of brilliance as well. Much of the strain on the Chicago relief staff will depend on how deep Keller can throw in this game. That said, there should be enough to hold the Yankees in check in the latter innings.
New York Yankees
Gil is the better of the two piitchers in this game, and he will have the easier task of getting through the White Sox lineup. Gil excels in limiting hard contact and striking out batters. His walk rate is a major caveat to his success at nearly 15%, but otherwise, a sub-3.00 ERA and 3.13 xERA will get the job done. Besides, the White Sox only walk 6.1% of the team against righties in the last month anyways.
The Yankees own a team wRC+ of 133 off right-handers in the last month. They have walked more than 9%, while striking out less than 20%. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto lead the charge with .470+ xwOBAs, but other than that, the Yankees have only three other hitters above .320. Essentially, if Keller and company can keep the ball on the ground for the top of the New York order, the bottom should be much easier to contend with.
The Yankees have a decent relief staff, with four active arms under a 4.00 xFIP and a collective 3.75 xFIP. If Gil exits early, they could have issues, but since the White Sox don't walk much, that likely won't be the case.
White Sox vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Yankees have two of the best hitters in baseball, but Keller inducing grounders is the antidote to the power at the top of the New York batting order. On the other side, Gil should fan plenty of White Sox hitters and limit them easily. Both teams should have enough in relief to get through the remainder of the game and keep the total under.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
