The 2024 Fall Classic continues on Saturday night with World Series Game 2 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees.
Our experts delivered the goods in Game 1, going 3-for-4 on their World Series best bets, only missing on the Yankees’ first five innings (F5) moneyline.
They look to stay hot tonight. Among their Game 2 picks are Yankees and Dodgers player props for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández and Aaron Judge.
World Series Best Bets Game 2
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Player Props: Short Leash in Game 2?
I have a hard time seeing Yoshinobu Yamamoto seeing the order a third time in Game 2. He only faced the order twice through against the Padres in Game 5 of the NLDS and against the Mets in the NLCS he failed to make it past the fifth inning.
He struck out eight batters in that start against the Mets, but in his two starts against the Padres he only struck out a total of three batters and got hit really hard.
The Yankees were the best team in baseball against not only righties this season, but against fastballs, which is Yamamoto’s main pitch. The Yankees had the ninth-lowest strikeout rate this season and have the same strikeout rate in the postseason as they did during the regular season.
With an off-day on Sunday, I expect Dave Roberts to heavily utilize his bullpen if he needs to, so I think under 4.5 strikeouts for Yamamoto is good value.
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Aaron Judge Player Props
By Tony Sartori
The Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2, and I am looking to fade him in a specific prop market.
He's gotten off to a difficult start in his first MLB postseason, posting a 5.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through three starts.
While I trust him to at least slightly positively regress, I don't think it will come in his ability to limit contact from opposing hitters. In the regular season, Yamamoto sported a .241 expected batting average (xBA) and ranked in the 36th percentile in barrel rate and 27th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Dating back to the regular season, Yamamoto has given up four or more hits in six of his last seven starts.
That brings me to Aaron Judge, the best pure hitter in baseball. This season, Judge finished in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, expected slugging (xSLG), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
While -200 is a relatively large number to lay compared to our usual best bets, I don't think it is wide enough. Not only is Judge 1-for-2 in his career against Yamamoto with a double, but he has also recorded at least one hit in four of the last five games.
Pick: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Hits (-200)
Teoscar Hernández Player Props
By D.J. James
Who knows if Game 2 of the World Series can match the energy and outcome of Game 1. However, with Carlos Rodón throwing for the Yankees, one Dodger comes to mind: Teoscar Hernández. He has hit lefties well, and he has hit well in general in the playoffs.
Rodón likely has a tight leash after the Yankees dropped the first game. He has been effective but has only logged more than five innings in one outing in the playoffs. He has quickly racked up strikeouts and has walked only one batter. His ground-ball rate was a sore spot during the season, as well as the propensity to surrender hard hits.
Hernández can accrue strikeouts, but he slugged over .500 on the year and had an elite average exit velocity and hard-hit Rate. He has only nine hits in the playoffs, but his xwOBA is above .400 against lefties. He has nine walks in the postseason – reaching base over 15 times overall against the game’s best pitchers is a good indicator.
Rodón may be able to generate strikeouts, but Hernández is a sleeper in the Dodgers’ order with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in the mix. Hernández has the power to match, and he has seen a bulk of the Yankees bullpen, too, as a former member of the Blue Jays.
Look for Hernández to go over his total bases in this game. Take it from 0.5 (-165) to 0.5 (-185).