After an off-day on Sunday, the Yankees and Dodgers are back in action for World Series Game 3 on Monday night. The Dodgers defended home turf and find themselves with a commanding 2-o series lead, though there are question marks surrounding the health of Shohei Ohtani.
Our experts have been locked in through the first two games, going 5-for-7 on their World Series best bets, and they are back with three Game 3 prop picks on starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Clarke Schmidt, plus a Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) bet.
World Series Best Bets Game 3
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:08 p.m. | |
| 8:08 p.m. | |
| 8:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
BJ Cunningham's Dodgers vs Yankees Best Bet: Concerning Signs for Walker Buehler?
There are a lot of concerning signs for Walker Buehler right now, and I don't think he would be in the starting rotation if essentially the entire Dodgers' pitching staff was hurt.
He got lit up for six runs against the Padres in the NLCS his fastball got him into trouble. The Padres had nine hard hits off him, and six of them were off of his fastball, which isn't surprising given how poor he was with it during the regular season allowing a .446 xwOBA to opposing hitters. Then against the Mets, he mixed his pitches a lot better, which kept them at bay for the most part.
What I found interesting was that in the game against the Padres, Dave Roberts let him work through trouble and he pitched two innings even after giving up six runs. But against the Mets, it seems that Roberts learned his lesson and only allowed Buehler to see the order two times through.
Does he do that again with a bullpen game coming up in Game 4 and the Dodgers having to play three straight games? Or with a 2-game lead, does he allow Buehler a longer leash? I don’t think we know the answer to that question.
Aside from that start against the Mets, pitching on the road has been a complete disaster for Buehler. In a little over 30 innings this season, he has a 5.24 xFIP and his walk rate is double what it is at home.
He threw a lot of sweepers and knuckle curves in that start against the Mets, and he's going to have to do that again here because the Yankees have a .434 xwOBA against fastballs this postseason.
With this being a bad road matchup for Buehler against one of the best lineups in baseball, I like the value on hits Hits Allowed prop at Over 4.5 (+135).
Pick: Walker Buehler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+135)
Tony Sartori's Dodgers vs Yankees Best Bet: Clarke Schmidt Player Prop Pick
By Tony Sartori
The Yankees hand the ball to right-hander Clarke Schmidt, who should serve as a good candidate to back in the prop market in Game 3.
This season, the right-hander ranked in the 79th percentile in whiff rate and 74th percentile in strikeout rate. Schmidt utilized this ability to record a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 16 regular season starts.
His strikeout prop is also listed at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in 13 of his past 16 starts.
Only three Los Angeles hitters have faced Schmidt prior to Monday: Enrique Hernandez, Teoscar Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani.
Against Schmidt, Enrique is 1-7 with three strikeouts, Teoscar is 0-3 with a strikeout and Ohtani is 1-3 with two strikeouts. That is good for a 46.2% strikeout rate between those three hitters that have previously faced the right-hander.
Pick: Clarke Schmidt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Billy Ward's World Series Game 3 YRFI Pick
By Billy Ward
This World Series has yet to produce a first-inning run despite it featuring two star-studded lineups. The Yankees and Dodgers ranked first and second, respectively, in wRC+ against right-handed pitching while also featuring extreme top-heavy lineups.
A lot of that power outage was due to the pitchers involved. So far, those have been Gerrit Cole, Jack Flaherty, Carlos Rodon and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
But for Game 3, it’s Walker Buehler and Clarke Schmidt.
Schmidt has been solid overall and early in games this season, but Buehler has a 5.38 ERA with ERA predictors in the mid-fours or higher. Crucially, he’s been even worse early in games with his ERA jumping over 6.00.
Unfortunately, the price on the Yankees-specific YRFI is just +145, so I’m projecting a bigger edge on the game line of -105 at DraftKings.
On the plus side, that means we get exposure to at-bats from Shoehei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, which is valuable no matter who the opposing pitcher is.
